Ok an attempt at the latest update. Summary: What we are seeing now is _NOT_ what everyone has been talking about the last week. This is just a bit of wind and rain that precedes the possible storm. In around 7 hours time (10pm) the first of this heavy weather is going to make landfall in Cornwall/Devon. The exact strength of this is still fairly unsure. The reason for which is its so difficult to predict the interaction of everything. However, coastal wind speeds of around 50mph and gusts of up to 70 are quite likely. Inland gusts of around 50-60mph are currently predicted, and this mostly agreed upon now by several weather models. This storm will then track Eastwards along the channel. From around Midnight wind speeds will begin to pick up, again speeds along the coast look to be around 50mph with gusts of upto 70mph or so. Inland wind speeds beneath the M4 level look to be around 40mph with peaks in exposed areas of possibly 50-60. Finally the storm will pass along the East coast and Anglia around 7am. However this is potentially the area at most risk. With possible winds gusts of some 80mph around Dover. Now, it must be said again that we live on an island with such a complicated weather system that there is STILL time for this to go both ways. What we have now is real live data being fed into the computer models which have it seems began to play down the possible extreme effect predicted mid week (thank goodness - no one really wants to have to replace their roof). As real time data is fed into and updates this I shall update again, but here are a couple of final thoughts for now. 1, Yes this is potentially a serious weather situation. The Met office have been seriously considering a Red Alert warning. This has never been issued before in some of the areas in the south. Although it may turn out to not be as bad as expected, it would not be a bad idea to take some steps to reduce the possibility of damage or injury to yourself belongings etc. 2, Along with the wind, which incidentally has already cut power to 1000 homes in the south, will also be rain. Flash flooding is possible in high risk areas as this low pressure system passes over, but the worse of this will pass to the north of the SE. 3, It would be best to avoid any journeys where possible during the time frame above. It really doesnt take much wind to blow down a tree when it is in full leaf - as many still are at the moment. Its highly likely there will be quite some severe travel disruption tomorrow.
Posted on: Sun, 27 Oct 2013 15:26:34 +0000
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