RINA Design & Operation of Passenger Ships Conference rina.org.uk/passenger_ships.html According to the latest publication from UK-based market consultants Ocean Shipping Consultants – “World Cruise Ports and Shipping” – the global cruise sector is forecast to exhibit dynamic growth in the period up to 2025, taking annual passenger demand up from around 20.9 million in 2012 to approximately 24m passengers by 2015, 29.7m by 2020 and 36.4m by 2025. This represents an overall forward expansion of 74%. North America will still dominate the world cruise industry in terms of sourced passengers and cruise operators, but Europe and Asia Pacific are expected to grow strongly. This will have major implications for cruise capacity deployment, cruise ports development, cruise ship construction and cruise ship repair. Cruise Passenger Demand and Ship Demand to 2025 •The world cruise passenger volume total is forecast to expand from around 20.9 million in 2012, to approximately 24m passengers by 2015, 29.7m by 2020 and 36.4m by 2025. •North America as a source market will continue to dominate during the period up to 2025, although its significance is expected to decrease from the current 56% to 50% by 2025. •The European source markets are expected to reach 12m by 2025. Strong growth is expected from Asia and the rest of the world, with the aggregate representing over 17% of the global total by 2025 at 6.3m, rising from 12.7% in 2012, and 8.4% in the mid-2000s. •Required cruise ship capacity is expected to increase from the current 464,000 berths (2012) to 866,000 berths by 2025. •On the basis of a set of reasonable assumptions on average vessel life, and a rising average vessel size for newbuildings, the number of extra vessels required (in addition to the current orderbook) to meet the projected cruise demand is estimated to approximate 5 vessels in 2014, and 9-13 vessels in the following years to 2025. •If recent average $/berth prices are applied to the newbuildings, this implies an extra required investment (in addition to the current orderbook) of $11.4 billion for the period of 2013-15, $41bn and $49bn for 2015-20 and 2020-25 respectively.
Posted on: Tue, 27 Aug 2013 09:12:07 +0000