SF Giants: Picking the Ideal Free Agent to Fill Each of the Teams Holes: The dust has barely settled from the victory parade honoring the San Francisco Giants third World Series title in five years. The 2014 season was an amazing journey of highs and lows. Manager Bruce Bochys steady hand guided the Giants to the playoffs, and the team played its best baseball when it needed it the most. The Giants thrilling win in seven games over the Kansas City Royals was an epic and emotional battle between two very tough, gritty teams. The heroics of Madison Bumgarner is the stuff of legend, and he also got plenty of offensive help from Hunter Pence and Pablo Sandoval. We now turn our attention to GM Brian Sabean and how he can rebuild the Giants roster. The Giants have holes to fill, and it wont be easy for Sabean to have proven players in each spot. The Giants need a third baseman, left fielder, starting pitcher and right-handed reliever. The Giants have five key free agents, Pablo Sandoval, Michael Morse, Jake Peavy, Sergio Romo and Ryan Vogelsong. Sabeans first order of business is to sign Sandoval or make the determination that the Giants must look in a different direction. The Giants ended the 2014 season with a salary in excess of $150 million. The luxury-tax threshold for the 2015 season stands at $189 million. If the Giants were to exceed that mark, they would be assessed a tax of 17.5 percent for every dollar they are above the threshold. Luis Delgado explains the nuances of the luxury tax on Sporting Charts. The Giants already have roughly $97 million committed to just six players in 2015. Overall, they have $127 million committed to just 12 players, which includes Marco Scutaro, who may be at the end of the line, after battling chronic back problems in 2014. The Giants 2014 postseason run has and will continue to generate more revenue for the Giants. This should entice the ownership group to approach the luxury tax, if not exceed it for 2015. This means Sabean could have in the range of $35 million additional to spend, if he chooses. The overall solution for the Giants rests on what transpires with Sandoval. If they are able to retain him, it will cost them a high percentage of their available budget, which means they will need to go cheaper with some of their other needs. Ideally, the Giants can sign Sandoval to a four-year, $80 million deal, but something along the lines of a five-year, $100 million offer is probably the maximum for the Giants. Its quite conceivable that Sandoval will get an offer for more years and more money than what the Giants are willing to offer. Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston reported that the Boston Red Sox are in hot pursuit of Sandoval (via Mike Oz of Yahoo Sports Big League Stew). At this point, they appear to be the Giants biggest competition for the Kung Fu Panda. If the Red Sox come through with a proposal that tops what the Giants will offer, it then becomes a decision for Sandoval. He would have to decide if he was willing to take less money to return to San Francisco, where he likes it and is adored, or will he bolt for the biggest contract. Realistically, Sandovals numbers during the regular season do not merit this type of huge deal. He hit only .279, with an OBP of .324 and OPS of .739. In 588 at-bats, Sandoval hit 16 home runs and drove in 73 runs. Sandoval hit in the fourth spot in the Giants batting order for the majority of his at-bats, so his RBI total is far too low. In contrast, shortstop Brandon Crawford, who typically hit eighth, had 69 RBI in 491 at-bats. Where Sandoval increased his stock was in the postseason. Similar to 2012, when he was the World Series MVP, Sandoval had a big postseason. He had 26 hits in 71 at-bats, for a .366 average. The 26 hits are a new MLB record for the total number of hits in a single postseason. Sandoval was outstanding against the Royals in the World Series, hitting .429, with an OBP of .467 and OPS of 1.002. These postseason heroics have greatly inflated the price tag for Sandoval. Paying Sandoval something in the range of $20 million per year means that the Giants would only have about $15 million to address all of their other needs. There is also the underlying concern as to whether Sandoval will allow his weight and conditioning to become an issue, if he signs a huge long-term deal. If Sandoval does not return to the Giants, there are not many alternatives available in the free-agent market. Only Chase Headley and Casey McGehee would qualify as quality third basemen, but there are concerns about the health of both players. Headley began the 2014 season with the San Diego Padres but was traded to the New York Yankees. The Yankees liked him and are pushing to bring him back, as reported by Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork. With the Yankees making Headley a priority, that leaves McGehee as the only real free-agent option at third base for the Giants. After playing in only 114 games in 2012 and missing the entire 2013 season due to injury, it looked as if McGehees career was winding down. However, he had a major resurgence and a very strong 2014. McGehee played in 160 games and had 616 at-bats for the Miami Marlins. He hit .287, with an OBP of .355 and OPS of .712. McGehee did not show much power, with only four home runs, but he did drive in 76 runs. Unlike Sandoval and Headley, who made over $10 million this past season, McGehee will be much more affordable. He made only $1.1 million in 2014, and although he is due a raise, he will not approach the big-money deal of Sandoval or Headley. If the Giants can sign him to a two-year, $8 million deal, that would make sense for both parties. Even if Sabean was forced to go a little higher, being that the Giants have no other real options at third base, its still a deal that makes sense. The next critical area of need is left field. Michael Morse started the 2013 season extremely well, but he struggled during the middle and was injured toward the latter part of the campaign. Morse was a relative bargain at $6 million, but he will command more this season. Morse missed virtually all of September with an injury, but he returned in time to make some huge contributions in the National League Championship Series and World Series. For the year, in 438 at-bats, Morse hit .279, with an OBP of .336 and OPS of .811. He had 16 home runs and 61 RBI. Although Morse is a fan favorite and well-liked by the players, the Giants would be better served to sign Torii Hunter. Although Hunter will be 40 years old next July, he still has a lot of mileage left. In 2014, Hunter had 549 at-bats, hitting .286, with an OBP of .319 and OPS of .765. He hit 17 home runs and had 83 RBI. Hunter is also a good defensive player, far superior to Morse or NLCS hero Travis Ishikawa. Signing Hunter would also alleviate the need to have a fifth outfielder such as Juan Perez, who is primarily just a defensive replacement. Acquiring Hunter would pave the way for the Giants to keep Ishikawa over Perez, as well. Hunter made $14 million in 2014 and will likely be in the same neighborhood. However, at his age, no team is going to be overly aggressive for him. If Sabean and the Giants can ink Hunter to a two-year deal in the $26 million range, it would be an overall upgrade in left field. The Giants will also be looking for one more starting pitcher. The rotation has four starters already penciled in, with Madison Bumgarner, Tim Hudson, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. Yusmeiro Petit could be the fifth starter, but he has so much value out of the bullpen, the Giants will see if they can fill that spot with another decent arm. If the Giants do not sign Sandoval, look for Jake Peavy to return. His acquisition at the trade deadline last season was instrumental to the Giants making the playoffs. Without Peavy, the Giants never would have won the world championship. Returning to the National League and reuniting with Bochy, Peavy thrived. As a Giant, Peavy started 12 regular-season games and compiled a record of 6-4. He threw 78.2 innings, allowed 65 hits and 17 walks, while striking out 59. Peavy had an impressive ERA at 2.17, with a WHIP of 1.042. Peavy made $14.5 million last year, and although he will not likely command that much this time around, look for him to get a two-year deal in the $24 million range. Sabean and the Giants will be much more apt to pull the trigger on a deal of this magnitude if they do not sign Sandoval. If the Giants decide to go with a less expensive option, look for Jason Hammel at around $16 million over two seasons or Ryan Vogelsong to return at around the same one-year, $5 million deal he played for in 2014. The final hole the Giants need to fill is for a right-handed relief pitcher for the seventh or eighth inning. At the beginning of the 2014 season, Santiago Casilla held this job, but then he was moved into the closer role, when Sergio Romo struggled. After a period of ineffectiveness during the middle of the season, Romo shined in September and the postseason. Romo was at the end of a two-year, $9 million contract. Romo was a major contributor to all three of the Giants world-championship teams and has a strong bond with the fans of San Francisco. If he is willing to return on a two-year, $10 million contract, he should be retained. Another excellent option is Pat Neshek. He appeared in 71 games last season for the St. Louis Cardinals. Neshek worked 67.1 innings, allowed 44 hits and nine walks, while striking out 68. Nesheks ERA was 1.87, and he has a stellar WHIP of 0.787. Neshek had a $1 million deal with St. Louis in 2014 and will command a lot more this winter. Still, he is likely to be less expensive than Romo. Look for Neshek to get a two-year deal for something in the range of $6 million to $8 million. It will be interesting to see how Sabean rebuilds the Giants roster and exactly how much he spends in order to do so. Player stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Salary data courtesy of Baseball Prospectus. Read more MLB news on BleacherReport #Baseball #MLB #NLWest #SanFranciscoGiants
Posted on: Thu, 13 Nov 2014 10:15:08 +0000
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