Since the first ‘green men’ appeared in Crimea, discussion in western capitals has focused on Russia’s actions and the West’s response. Yet it is Ukraine, not the West, that has altered the dynamics of the con¬flict. However well or poorly the Kremlin understands the EU or NATO, it has underestimated the coherence and resilience of Ukraine. Had it been otherwise, had the insurgency rolled through Zaporizhe, Odessa and up to the Moldovan border, we might be discussing the imminence of war rather than the resolution of a crisis. Yet ‘resolution’ remains only a hope. With insurgent forces now fragmented and largely encircled, the end game might be approaching. But that is not to say it will end. By designating General Antufeyev, the master architect of ‘frozen conflicts’, as his de facto plenipotentiary in Donetsk, Putin has provided the clearest indication yet that he has no intention of allowing the region to revert to Kyiv’s control. This only multiplies fears that Ukraine’s European partners will not allow Russia to be defeated without its consent. More than once, Poroshenko has come under Western pressure to declare a ceasefire that only Ukraine observes. It is too early to say whether the Malaysia Airlines tragedy will diminish this pressure or intensify it. The final fear is that Ukraine will only be able to prevail militarily by alienating civilians who increasingly damn all sides. Bringing the Donbas back into the fold will be like rebuilding East Germany without West German money. The task of reconciling citizens and government in a torn and traumatised society will be greater still.
Posted on: Fri, 01 Aug 2014 15:07:00 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015