So bear with me on this posting because I think it is important though it may not make sense to some at first! I wanted to take the emotions out of my determination of what I think happened to the plane. So I usually do that at work using numbers. So I took every possible scenario and put it on the left hand side of my spreadsheet (e.g. Terrorism, fire, missile strike, mechanical failure). Then along the top I put all the evidence we have obtained in column headings (e.g. ACARS turned off, transponder turned off, no cellphone calls from passengers etc.) and I tried to get myself to give the cross section of the two a score out of 30 as to how much I felt that evidence pointed to that scenario being possible. This gave me a total on the right hand side of the likelihood of each scenario. As you can see attached, Terrorism/suicide causing the plane to crash in S Indian Ocean was the top score with 200 in this case. However, then I realized that I did not believe each piece of evidence as strongly as others. For example, I am pretty sure that no cellphone messages were received from passengers or else I am pretty sure we would know about them because there are so many families who want to hear that kind of news. But I am very skeptical that the flight really went up to 45000ft and then fell really quickly without breaking up into pieces (as are many pilots/accident investigators who commented on that piece of evidence). So I gave a weighting to each piece of evidence to come up with what I think the most likely scenarios are. Unsurprisingly, Terrorism followed by missile shoot down S China Sea, is top for me (given the evidence I believe I found on tomnod, this is unsurprising). However, the important thing is that this table works for ME and will be different values for YOU but every time someone disproves a piece of evidence or proves it, it will be easy to change my weightings and come up with the most likely theory given that change. So I thought it would be useful for me to post this. This is very subjective in some ways but yet it represents my subjectivity in an objective way so that I can monitor changes to my theory more objectively! If that makes any sense at all!! It is basically a model of my thoughts and beliefs about flight 370, and will help you to argue with me why my scores or weightings should be changed for one piece of evidence over another, or one scenario over another.. Here is the spreadsheet https://drive.google/file/d/0B6cDJKzfqVJUX0Z1YV9EZHZuTHc/edit?usp=sharing
Posted on: Sun, 30 Mar 2014 02:48:39 +0000
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