Sport: NRL (4* NRL Play of the Day) Market: Canterbury Bulldogs @ South Sydney Rabbitohs Pick: Rabbitohs -4 ½ points Odds: $1.60 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 4 Units Analysis: History says that this game will be tough for the Rabbits as they have only won 25% of their games against the Bulldogs. This amazing stat does not line up with the rabbits home ground record at ANZ of 18 wins from their past 21 home games or 86% wins. So the Rabbits have an 86% win record at ANZ but the Bulldogs have defeated them here in 7 of their last 10 games. It seems that the Rabbits are virtually unbeatable at ANZ unless they play the Bulldogs. We prefer to go on recent form and you can see the highlights of the last time these two teams met in round 4 and Ben Barba played that day scoring a late token try. Souths were clearly superior and given the outs of both teams, it is hard to see a changed result. Given that Watmough turned up and played last week, we cannot discount the chance of Barba playing which will change everything, but our feeling is that Des Hasler is probably content to finish 5th and get a home game in week 1 against the 8th finishing team. The Bulldogs cannot make the all-important top 4 so they’re unlikely to risk their best player. The Rabbits are without their best forward in Sam Burgess but still believe they will win this game convincingly. We also believe they should be the competition favourites, just ahead of the Roosters and they must win this well to frank that opinion. Souths have the best spine in the NRL in our opinion and to be able to bring on Luke Keary as an alternative pivot is a huge option for any coach. We don’t think the market rate Keary as high as we do. Put it this way, if the Storm had him, we would have them as the favourites. We think he is every bit as good as his two starting halfs Reynolds and Sutton and fully expect him to represent the Maroons in Origin in the future. Our feeling here is that the Bulldogs are down on big experienced forwards and are conceding plenty to the Rabbits key position players. Although we think the Rabbitohs should win by 10-12 points, we are taking the reduced line as we’re not quite sure what to make of the Bulldogs, but the Rabbitohs have the talent and key position players to win this one comfortably. Take Souths -4 ½ points in this one for a strong 4 units in our NRL Play of the Day. Sport: NRL Market: Brisbane Broncos @ Penrith Panthers Pick: Broncos Win Odds: $1.84 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 Units Analysis: The loser of this game is mathematically gone for 2013, though we’re pretty sure that neither of these teams will make it regardless of the result. Brisbane have won 6 of the last 10 clashes with 1 draw also. The Broncos have also won 2 and drawn 1 of the last 4 games here at Centrebet stadium. We believe that Alex Glenn will line up for the Broncos which helps as they have suffered a huge blow with Hodges out. The Broncos are 17-7 after winning the past two games since 2011. The Panthers 11-21 after conceding 24 or more points the week before. The Panthers are 9-14 at home in the past 2 years, while the Broncos are 9-15 on the road in that time, but 6-4 when straight up favourites on the road. The two teams have not yet met this season, with the Broncos winning 19-12 in their only clash last year. The Broncos have beaten the Cowboys, Dragons and Eels and drawn Newcastle in the past 4, while the Panthers snapped a 4 game losing streak last week with a come from behind win over the Warriors in NZ. We think that form weighs heavily in Brisbane’s favour as the Panther’s win last week probably says more about the Warriors than it does about Penrith. Take the Broncos to win this one. #EasyMoney
Posted on: Fri, 23 Aug 2013 08:30:43 +0000
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