Steve signing in at 7:19 AM. Clear skies and chilly temperatures this morning, 29° at Foothills AP, 32° at Morganton and Granite Falls, 35° at Nebo and 38° at Hickory. Today will be the best day weather wise of the next seven, so get out and enjoy if you can and remember to honor our veterans. Light to calm winds, sunny skies, temperatures this afternoon near 70°. Temperatures should not be as cool tonight, maybe reaching the low 40s Wednesday morning with a bit more cloud cover as a frontal system approaches from the west. By Wednesday morning the front should be somewhere near or just east of the Tennessee State Line and push eastward during the morning reaching central North Carolina later in the day. We wont notice the frontal passage initially and overall, Wednesday should be a mainly sunny day with high temperatures about 5 degrees lower than today with a northwest wind picking up a little during the afternoon. I think we will notice the change to colder air on Thursday. In addition a disturbance crossing the area will produce cloudy skies. Thursday is likely to be a dismal, raw sort of day with high temperatures around 50° in the afternoon. As this disturbance moves eastward it appears to pick up moisture and intensity and may bring a little light rain to the piedmont sections of central North Carolina but we should stay dry. The main effect, once the system reaches the coast, could be an increase in northerly winds and a reinforcing shot of cold air. Friday morning is likely to be in the 20s just about everywhere. Friday and Saturday will be cold but dry with mostly sunny skies. Temperatures Friday may stay mainly in the 30s, possibly reaching the mid 40s Saturday. By late Saturday night, low pressure starts to develop over the Mississippi Delta region and moves eastward. Temperatures Sunday morning are likely to be cold enough for frozen precipitation but the latest forecast graphics dont show precipitation reaching our area until Sunday afternoon. By Sunday afternoon we should be mainly in the 40s so precipitation should start out as rain except in the mountains. There are a lot of details to be resolved about what happens Sunday night and beyond. Right now it looks like the bulk of the precipitation slides across the NC piedmont south and east of us. Colder air starts filtering into western NC Sunday night and especially Monday morning. By Monday morning, though, it appears that most of the precipitation has moved away from us. I think there is a pretty good chance of light snow in the mountains, a possible mix along the I-40 corridor and mostly rain to the east. If the cold air rushes in quickly enough Sunday night, some of the heavier rain in the piedmont could change to periods of wet snow but it appears that the coldest temperatures will be along the Blue Ridge. Keep in mind that the long-range models are far from stable in their thinking on this Gulf of Mexico system so things could change and we are still on the edge of a winter weather event Sunday into Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday are likely to be cold days but some moderation in temperature is possible thereafter as the prevailing flow becomes west to east (zonal) again. The European Model has backed off its dire scenario of a secondary Gulf of Mexico low for Tuesday into Wednesday and shows mostly calm weather until later next Wednesday when a system develops over the southern Plains. That system appear to pass to our west, and, as such, would more likely be a rainmaker than a frozen precipitation threat.
Posted on: Tue, 11 Nov 2014 12:43:06 +0000
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