Steve signing in at 8:16 AM. Partly cloudy skies across the 4 county area this morning with temperatures ranging from 63° at Table Rock to 70° at Hickory. The debris clouds from an earlier complex of organized thunderstorms are moving across the area at the moment. Another remnant circulation is to our northwest but that one looks like it should pass just north of us this afternoon. Still it could trigger more thunderstorms, especially in counties to our north and east, such as Surry, Forsyth (Winston-Salem), Yadkin, maybe even Wilkes. There is the chance that storms may also build as far south as Burke, Caldwell and Catawba but these would be more widely scattered. Even so, there is likely to be some instability (not as much as yesterday), and a strong storm or two is not out of the question. Note also that it will be quite hot today with low, possibly mid 90s along the I-40 corridor. Good news is that we can now see a change in the weather pattern for the better by late Saturday or Saturday night. In the meantime, we should see more hot and uncomfortable weather Friday and Saturday with complexes of thunderstorms moving southeastward into the area. Right now, forecast models suggest that the bulk of the organized storm activity should pass just to our north, just far north enough any storm action developing for us is not likely to be widespread. However, that changes Saturday. Temperatures through Saturday should reach the 90s each afternoon. With the arrival of a back door cold front Saturday evening, more widespread and strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. Available instability and moisture appear at this point to be much more in line with an organized thunderstorm event than either today or Friday. One thing to keep in mind is that this is the same front that we originally thought would push through later today or Friday. Models are now delaying its arrival until later Saturday so the timing could change yet again but right now, a Saturday frontal passage looks pretty good. Behind the front, we should see much cooler temperatures by about 10° or so, partly sunny skies, possible isolated showers in the mountains but overall a drying trend, and less humidity. The responsible high pressure should settle into the mid Atlantic and serve two roles: one to continue below normal temperatures and low humidities for several days and two, to keep a developing tropical system at sea. This system is now approaching the Windwards and forecast models, while not in total agreement, seem to be steering it out into the Atlantic by the time it reaches the southern Bahamas.
Posted on: Thu, 21 Aug 2014 12:35:49 +0000
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