Sunday, 16 November, 2014 Forecasts for Ireland TODAY ... Fog will be fairly widespread for part of the morning and it will be quite cold until the fog disperses, but some sunshine is likely around mid-day and afternoon, with just a few showers here and there in backing southeast to easterly winds of 30-50 km/hr. Highs 8-10 C. TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, widespread fog and some frost. Lows -2 to +4 C. A few showers are still likely in some coastal regions. There could be a few icy spots on rural highways towards sunrise. MONDAY ... Moderate northeast to north winds, a few showers developing but some places dry, highs 8-10 C. TUESDAY ... Sharp frost and widespread fog may be slow to disperse but eventually some sunshine will break through, cloud will build slowly near the south and west coast, and it may rain by evening in west Munster in a moderate southeast wind. Lows -3 to +3 C and highs 8-10 C. WEDNESDAY ... Periods of rain, moderate southeast winds. There is now a developing change in the guidance especially on the leading European model, as this system tries to bring warmer air in but blocking high pressure is now expected to push the cloud and rain back to the south later in the overnight hours. Lows 3-6 C and highs 8-11 C. OUTLOOK ... As mentioned, some guidance is now much more blocked with high pressure building to the north and a rather cold easterly wind developing, although not cold enough for snow, nor for that matter unstable enough for much precipitation of any kind. However, other models continue to show some southeasterly component and intervals of light rain, so the outlook for a dry cold spell is not nailed down yet. Inversions, dense fog and a possible return to milder but dry weather would round out the picture if the blocking high sinks a bit further south as depicted. What is somewhat frustrating (although typical of uncertain outlooks) is that various models keep changing roles in this disagreement, about three days ago the same scenarios were shown on different models than todays guidance. Just a few notes on what may transpire in Britain and North America. For Britain, the blocking high will be closer by Monday and the Wednesday rain may only reach Cornwall, Devon and south Wales before being pushed south. And also, the temperatures could be several degrees lower with potential for some severe frosts and daytime fog under inversion conditions. It would be an early taste of winter for some. Meanwhile, across North America temperatures are generally quite cold but a very strong arctic blast is developing over central Canada and this will bring heavy lake effect snow during the week ahead. Not much of this snow will make it across the mountains to the eastern seaboard but there could be a few flurries at times after some rain moves up the coast on Tuesday. The western chill is fading as the fronts reposition further east around the same stagnant high. My local weather on Saturday continued clear and chilly with a high near 6 C. Expecting a slow return to more normal 10-12 C readings this week under slowly increasing cloud and the risk of dense fog. -- Peter for IWO
Posted on: Sun, 16 Nov 2014 07:23:47 +0000
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