THANKSGIVING EVE WINTER STORM LOOMS FOR NORTHEAST! EUROPEAN SAYS DEEPENING LOW TRACKS WEST OF GFS BUT DOES THAT MEAN LESS SNOW??? NOT NECESSARILY!! Forecasters and snow lovers are probably at the hair pulling stage at this point.The European model continues to insist on a deep system that tracks left of the other models. This of course has serious implications on rain vs snow among other things. What they cant understand is why the European, which is generating big snow amounts for Philidelphia and New York City is doing it with a low that tracks to the left. First off even though the European does have an intense feature left of the other models it is an offshore track and not an inland track. The low moves from off the Georgia coast North Northeast to just west of Boston, probably passing near Montauk on Long Island. However to add more complications to this, the European has an intense bery tight low. This is going to mean that the rain snow line is going to be structured differently Instead of a sweeping rain snow line that runs east west, this one will be running north south and it will be coiled into the low center itself. This has implications for snow on the coast in that cold air may be drawn further south than otherwise would be. This is the reason why the European give pretty big snow amounts for some coastal locations and makes forecasting this even tougher. Regardless..from a practical standpoint, if you are traveling west into New Jersey and have a choice on whether to leave Wednesday morning or evening..leave in the morning. If the Euro is right on all its numbers Wednesday evening driving will be difficult at best and impossible at worst in some places.
Posted on: Sun, 23 Nov 2014 21:00:00 +0000
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