TROPICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN AREA FROM 1200Z 16 AUG 2014 THE ANALYSIS SHOWS ------------Possible Development Of A Tropical Cyclone------------- At 15.00 N 20.00 W there is a possibility tropical cyclone delevoping, but an early morning visible satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with an area of low pressure centered between the west coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands has become disorganized. Although the potential for tropical cyclone formation has diminished considerably, the low could still produce a few squalls over the Cape Verde Islands today as it drifts west-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 day...low...20 percent. ------------TWO North Atlantic (non tropical) Low Pressure Storm--------- One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 43.00 N 44.00 W One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 38.00 N 76.00 W ------------THREE Tropical Waves------------- One Tropical wave that is located at 38.00 N 34.00 W to 33.00 N 43.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 23.00 N 98.00 W to 17.00 N 94.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 19.00 N 63.00 W to 13.00 N 63.00 W -----------GULF OF MEXICO------------------- A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF FOCUSED NEAR 25N94W EXTENDING S-SW TO A BASE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 19N98W. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF 25N92W AND 29N92W THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 26N FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC TO 90W THEN SW INTO A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N97W. GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH RELATIVELY LOWER PRESSURE ANALYZED ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN PLACE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM SW GEORGIA TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA ALONG 30N...AND A MARGINALLY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT DUE TO THE BASE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N-28N E OF 86W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD TO ALONG 28N LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. -------------------CARIBBEAN SEA--------------- A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND TWO POCKETS OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION...ONE IMPACTING THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EVENTUALLY THE ABC ISLANDS...AND THE OTHER OCCURRING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...MOVING CLOSER TO THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...THE OTHER MAJOR FEATURE IMPACTING THE BASIN IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N81W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 82W- 87W. FINALLY...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE PERSISTING GENERALLY S OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-83W. ----------------HISPANIOLA----------------- CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS EARLIER CONVECTION IS ALL BUT DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROPICAL WAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY... PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE AND A GOOD CHANCE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. ---------------ATLANTIC OCEAN------------------ GENERALLY WESTERLY AND SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 26N78W AND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. WHILE WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS ALONG 26N...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 68W-80W THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 26N55W AND 26N62W CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HIGHS...A STATIONARY FRONT DIPS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N40W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 28N49W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. LASTLY...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 35N24W TO 26N35W.
Posted on: Sat, 16 Aug 2014 16:56:18 +0000