TROPICAL ANALYSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN AREA FROM 1200Z 28 SEPT 2014 THE ANALYSIS SHOWS -----------------------Developing Tropical Cyclones--------------------------------- At 33.00 N 65.00 W A small area of low pressure located just west of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development during the next few days while this system moves slowly northwestward or northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. --------ONE North Atlantic (non tropical) Low Pressure Storm--------- One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 29.00 N 94.00 W One North Atlantic Low Pressure System That Is Located At 28.00 N 53.00 W -------------------------FOUR Tropical Waves---------------------- One Tropical wave that is located at 23.00 N 93.00 W to 18.00 N 93.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 22.00 N 84.00 W to 12.00 N 73.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 19.00 N 41.00 W to 14.00 N 43.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 14.00 N 33.00 W to 5.00 N 35.00 W ----------GULF OF MEXICO---------- A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND W GULF. SEE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA AT 29N83W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 28N90W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 26N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER FL. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ANTICYCLONE IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W. MAINLY E TO SE SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING NORTH AND OUT OF THE EASTERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. EXPECT ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF. ----------------------------------CARIBBEAN SEA------------------------------------- A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FL IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W. MAINLY 10 TO 15 KT SURFACE TRADE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. -------------------------------------HISPANIOLA----------------------------------------- A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW MOVING W OF HISPANIOLA WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND OFFSHORE WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE REGION...A MOIST AIRMASS AND THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES. ---------------------------------ATLANTIC OCEAN----------------------------- SURFACE FEATURES...A COLD FRONT IS FROM 31N66W NORTHEASTWARD TO 37N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. A WEAK 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N46W. A SECOND 1014 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S AND E OF THIS SECOND LOW FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. A THIRD 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 29N35W TO 24N38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 63W AND 74W. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 32N35W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 32W AND 39W.
Posted on: Sun, 28 Sep 2014 20:19:21 +0000
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