TYPHOON (TY) 22W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND WITH A MORE ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN FILLED IN, LEAVING A SLIGHT DIMPLE OFFSET TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 042301Z GMI AND 042242Z SSMIS IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION DUE TO THE DIMPLE FEATURE AND AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO T6.0 WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT T7.0, AS SUCH, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY TO 125 KNOTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER WEAKENING AS THERE IS INCREASED PRESSURE ON THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASED VWS
Posted on: Fri, 05 Dec 2014 08:19:25 +0000