#TeleTrade Market Discussion on 26/01/2015 This week, as expected, the focus of market participants are the results of the parliamentary elections in Greece, where a wide margin wins Coalition of the Radical Left Alliance (SYRIZA), received almost half the seats in parliament (149 out of 300). The victory of the party in the elections does not automatically mean a Greek exit from the eurozone, but much of this development of the situation is very increased, as the new prime minister, who will become the leader of Syriza Alexis Tsipras, intends to complete the action of the economic program for Greece agreed by the previous government with the EU, as well as to abandon austerity measures and to obtain a review of agreements with international creditors. During the program support Greece received from the EU and the IMF 240 billion, Euro and one of the conditions of this assistance has been the introduction of austerity measures. It is unlikely that international lenders will go to the revision of earlier agreements, so Athens will most likely have to break them, which would mean a direct path to the exit from the monetary union. In addition to the Greek question, which will continue to be actively discussed in the current week, the attention of the market in the next five days will attract the following data and events: - Data on UK GDP (Tuesday, 09:30 GMT). Average forecasts indicate that in the 4th quarter growth rate of the British economy will grow to 2.8% from 2.6% year on year. It is quite possible, given the large-scale decline in oil prices. Higher growth rates will support the pound, as will be heated speculation about an earlier rate hike by the Bank of England. - The inflation data for the 4th quarter in Australia (Wednesday, 00:30 GMT). Reduction in inflationary pressures, what cannot be doubted (average forecasts indicate a decline in the consumer price index to the level of 1.8% y / y in Q4 from 2.3% y / y in the third), will cause some reassessment of the prospects for monetary RBA credit policy (the number of those who allow a rate increase in 2015 will decrease, and it will be negative for the Australian dollar and the greater the stronger the lower inflation). - Meeting of the FOMC (the results will be announced on Wednesday, at 19:00 GMT). The January FOMC meeting is not extended, that is not accompanied by the publication of macroeconomic forecasts and a press conference the head of the Fed. Therefore hardly be expected any important decisions or statements. Most likely, the FOMC will continue to focus on tolerance towards the beginning of the process of raising rates (thesis with the December meeting), and weak inflation data only increase the level of tolerance given that, quite possibly, will cause the transfer at a later time, the first rate hike. - Meeting of the RBNZ (results will be announced on Wednesday, in the 20:00 GMT). From the RBNZ expected negative impact on the New Zealand dollar. Published last week (January 20) data on inflation in New Zealand were worse than expected, virtually eliminating the possibility of resumption of the RBNZ rate hikes in 2015. In the RBNZ should be noted worsening inflation prospects, thus confirming the expectations of market participants about the lack of preconditions for a tightening of monetary policy in the current year, and, perhaps, giving reason to expect its mitigation. - Data on inflation in Japan (Thursday, 23:30 GMT). Resumption of inflationary pressures is not expected, even in spite of all the efforts of the Bank of Japan. According to the average forecast at the end of December the value of the national consumer price index fell to a level of 2.6% y / y from 2.7% a month earlier. Despite the relatively high numbers, they are not quite true, because they include the effect of raising the sales tax, which, according to the Bank of Japan is equal to 2.0% (ie, the value of the national consumer price index must be subtracted 2.0 % to obtain the true value of the index). Further decline in inflation in Japan can strengthen speculation about increasing the already huge monetary stimulus of the Japanese central bank, putting pressure on the yen. - Data on US GDP for the 4th quarter (Friday, 13:30 GMT). Average forecasts for the preliminary assessment index for the last quarter of 2014 indicate a more modest rate of growth of the US economy than was observed in the third quarter (+ 3.3% vs. + 5.0%). Strong influence on the dollar from the publication of data is expected (except perhaps in the case of significant differences between the actual value of the forecast), because at the moment the focus is inflation, not growth rates, which are at a relatively high level. Data can have a big impact on the stock market (primarily - American) than on the exchange, strengthening or weakening market confidence in the power of the worlds largest economy. Also on this week will be published preliminary estimates of the consumer price index in Germany and the eurozone as a whole, but after the ECBs decision to launch a full program of QE, adopted last week, temporarily decrease the significance of these data, even if they will fix a further decline in inflationary pressures, what no doubt. In the United States continues season publish quarterly reports. Before the start of todays regular session of important reports will not be published, but during the current week will be quite a lot of these. List of key reports this week will be published today in the news about 13: 30-13: 45 GMT. On major currency pairs: EUR / USD: Prospects eurodollar in the light of the full launch of the ECB QE program and the results of the parliamentary elections in Greece are very, very negative, so this pair should be considered only signals the opening of short positions. Yes, the couple now too oversold and this may cause a certain correction, but for a strong recovery causes no, so after correction, if it takes place, it is safe to consider the scope for sales. Make significant adjustments to these expectations can unless large-scale correction of the dollar against other major currencies, but it needs at least signals indicative of the shift in the timing of future Fed rate hike first. Such signals may well be obtained in the near future, so you need to closely monitor the situation. Below the lows that were reached this morning (area $ 1.1000) significant levels of support are not marked. The nearest resistance is the area of $ 1.1300. GBP / USD: In truth breaking the support line, built by the minimum of 2010 and 2013, and do not believe there is great doubt in the ability of pair to continue to decline in seven months. The reason - the same data from the CFTC (recall that their graphical representation can be found at timingcharts/, but the picture is based on the data in the last week: clip2net/s/ 3bafqV0). It is clear that the CFTC data indicate a possible change in the situation at least in the medium term, while in the short term may be very large changes in course, including its decline, but to sell the pair in the current circumstances, I would not. At the same time I do not see tangible fundamental reasons for shopping. USD / JPY: Yen expectations remain negative. The Bank of Japan lowered its outlook on inflation, but promises to pump up the economy with liquidity up until it reaches the level of inflation of 2%, remain in force. Area Y116,00 / Y115,60 (minimum area of 14 January and 38,2% FIBO Y109,30-Y121,80 (growth triggered by the October decision of the Bank of Japan)) is an important support. The nearest resistance - area Y119,80 (resistance line, built on the highs of December and beginning of January). AUD / USD: The causes of the depreciation of the last week are not entirely clear. The course is obviously very oversold. It is possible to correct. Significantly affect the prospects of couples can inflation data in Australia, which will be published this week. Session lows ($ 0.7860 area) can be considered as the next area of support. The nearest resistance - area of at least 5, 7 and 22 January $ 0.8030 / 50. NZD / USD: is expected to continue in the direction of the depreciation of the 2012 lows in the $ 0.7200 / 7100. Weak data on inflation have led to reassessment of the prospects for the New Zealand currency, as they virtually eliminate the possibility of resumption of the RBNZ rate hikes in 2015, and the tsentrobnk this week can only confirm these expectations. As for Eurodollar, make significant adjustments to these expectations can unless large-scale correction of the dollar against other major currencies, but it needs at least signals indicative of the shift in the timing of future Fed rate hike first. Such signals may well be obtained in the near future, so you need to closely monitor the situation. GOLD: The risks of a Greek exit from the eurozone, the actions of central banks hold gold prices slightly below the $ 1,300 per ounce. At current levels, gold is already heavily overbought and chances are high correction. Opening the same short positions now will not be the best idea, as there are enough significant fundamental factors stand against whom not quite comfortable. Again, look for opportunities to open long positions will be in the correction in the area of AI (200) for D1, which now is the support ($ 1,255)
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 10:06:33 +0000