The Republican party is in serious difficulty. Aside from nominating candidates to national office who have little charisma or appeal, they seem to be moving increasingly to the wrong side of relevancy. Changing demographics will soon seal the fate of this hapless, clueless political aggregation. And I am all for a multiparty system in this country which can provide active opposition to a potential tyranny of the majority. The way I see it, is this. Traditionally, whites and nonblacks accounted for 87% of the population. Their voting preferences generally ran 48.7% republican and 38.3% democrat. Blacks comprised 13% of the population, and they typically voted 90% for democrats and 10% for republicans. This combination of votes often resulted in close, 50%/50% elections. A strong candidate, or being on the right side of a major issue could swing the election for one party or the other. But now, changing demographics is on the verge of changing the political landscape significantly, and possibly forever. Twenty years of unrestricted immigration has changed the political complexion to 74% whites and others; 13% black; and 13% Hispanic. And Hispanic voters have shown party preferences mirroring that of the blacks. When (not if) the Hispanic group becomes fully franchised in this country, it will be very difficult, if not impossible, for republicans to win under their current leadership, and under their present incarnation. If the white and other block votes in the traditional party split (which now may be even more favorable for the democrats, as the welfare state is expanding), adding Hispanics to the mix will result in national elections running 56% for the democrats, and 44% for the republicans. And demographics generally change, only glacially. If the republicans want the two party system to survive, they need to - - start listening to, and championing the needs of common people, rather than only the country club set - develop a vision and mission relevant to modern times - clean out their entrenched, ineffective leadership - nominate real candidates with salable messages, who can appeal to the masses, rather than rodeo clowns, cardboard cutouts of human beings, or YeeHaws from the sticks - work towards building a more free, just, and equitable society for all. Otherwise, we may face a future of only one effective political party with no countervailing force to provide stability. Notes: Before, democrat preference whites (87% x 44%) 38.3% blacks (13% x 90%) 11.7% Total 50.0% Before, republican preference whites (87% x 56%) 48.7% blacks (13% x 10%) 1.3% Total 50.0% Future, democrat preference whites (74% x 44%) 32.6% Hisp. (13% x 90%) 11.7% blacks (13% x 90%) 11.7% Total 56.0% Future, republican preference whites (74% x 56%) 41.4% Hisp. (13% x 10%) 1.3% blacks (13% x 10%) 1.3% Total 44.0%
Posted on: Mon, 25 Nov 2013 02:17:00 +0000