The bigger picture--the split in the polar jet stream off the west - TopicsExpress

The bigger picture--the split in the polar jet stream off the west coast is forced by the strong blocky HIGH over James/Hudson Bays. The vortices on either side of the HIGH cause the air flow to take on the shape of the Greek letter omega (upper case). Hence the name, omega block in meteorological parlance. The dashed red lines on the water vapor image depict that. The two branches of the polar jet rejoin east of Labrador, once they meander past the block. With a split flow like this, true arctic air is bottled up north of the northern branch. The southern branch carries much of the energy and has access to moisture, so this is generally a stormy, but relatively mild pattern for the lower 48 and southern Canada. The last image shows the 500 mb flow (18,000 feet above sea level) over the Pacific. The two circles labeled #1 and #2 are the packets of energy that computer models use to carve out a deep trough and strong storm over the eastern US and sn Ontario/Quebec for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Details of this storm have yet to be worked out due to the complex flow over North America. The tendency has been to track the storm near or west of the eastern seaboard, which would imply rain, or mixed precipitation to rain, on Christmas Eve day, then a change to snow showers for Christmas Day. Mark and Lawrencell keep you posted on developments.--Steve

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