The changing scenes of Oyo politics  The emergence of governorship candidates in Oyo State has thrown up new calculations in the four major parties ahead of the February elections in the state, writes DARE ADEKANMBI. Like a chameleon which changes its skin colour to regulate itself to its environment, the dynamics dictating the direction of Oyo politics have constantly been in a flux. But with the emergence of four gladiators as standard-bearers of the four major parties, a new political calculus has been born. As predicted by analysts, the battle for the plum governorship seat in the state is going to be a four-horse race among incumbent Governor Abiola Ajimobi of the All Progressives Congress (APC); former Governor Rashidi Ladoja from Accord Party (AP); former Governor Adebayo Alao-Akala for the Labour Party (LP); and former Senate Leader, Teslim Folarin who flies the flag of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Although Alao-Akala only two days ago formally declared for the LP, the plan had been on for about four months. And though four major governorship hopefuls had indicated interest in flying LP’s flag, Alao-Akala is primed to clinch the ticket. The road to the emergence of most of the candidates was being paved with thorns. There were movements to and from the major camps. Alliances were broken and reborn. However, the state’s current political landscape presents some challenges for all the parties and their candidates. APC/Ajimobi The walls of the ruling party began to show signs of serious distress and cracks when the governor began to dispense patronage in terms of appointments. The governor was accused of handing the juicy and majority of the appointments to those who defected with him from the defunct All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP). All hell broke loose. It took the political sagacity of the late former governor of the state, Alhaji Lam Adesina to put the cork over the animosity released by aggrieved leaders and members of the party. The death of Lam robbed the progressive fold of a father figure and left the party completely de-centred. Attempts to coronate Chief Michael Koleoso, who was next in command to Lam as the party’s leader, were frustrated by pro-establishment forces governor’s camp. Some of the few appointees from the party were later dropped by the government and this further convinced the leaders of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) that a full blown war against them and their loyalists was afoot. When the party changed to the APC, the aggrieved leaders’ philosophy was that of siddon look. Thus, the governor had his way and his loyalists were comfortably in charge of the party. At the approach of election year, the party lost its two senators- Olufemi Lanlehin, who switched to Accord and Ayo Adeseun, who is now in PDP. Many young leaders in the party also sought political sanctuary in the LP. Chief Koleoso, Chief S.A Adelere and Chief Titilade Awakan, who are the pillars of the party in Oke Ogun zone, ordered their foot soldiers to move over to LP. Ondo State governor, who was the only governor of the party, met with Chief Koleoso on a number of occasions and the structure of LP was thus handed over to Koleoso and other leaders. On seeing the politics at play, the governor began to send emissaries to the leaders, promising to do right what wrongs they perceived. In preparedness for the February’s election, Governor Ajimobi recently embarked on a state-wide tour which was kicked off at the Oke Ogun zone. Indications that some leaders were not happy about happenings in the party were glaring, as most of them were on hand to welcome the governor to their domain. And when the caretaker chairmen were mobilising for the gubernatorial visits and contacted some of the foot soldiers of the leaders, the response of the leaders was that the administration had marginalised the area. The import of the proverbial response was well driven home and the visit was largely shunned by the aggrieved leaders and their loyalists. The national leadership of the APC got to know the enormity of the crisis and began to scout for prominent politicians from outside the APC to come over to the party. APC national leader, Bola Tinubu, was reported to have urged a former governor of the state to switch over to the party to get the party’s ticket. But Ajimobi reportedly was not comfortable with the development. The tour was Ajimobi’s strategy to show himself strong for APC national leadership. The party also requires a display of high managerial acumen to address the pockets of complaints arising from its just-concluded primaries. In spite of the challenges before Ajimobi and the APC, the governor sees his achievements, especially in the restoration of relative peace to the state and infrastructural regeneration, as his unique selling point upon which the people of the state should base their judgment and vote for him. Speaking with Nigerian Tribune on the chances of the APC in the election, the party’s spokesperson, Wale Sadare said: “The issue of some so-called members of the APC defecting to LP or any other party has been over flogged. There was a time one of these characters cleared the air by telling the whole world that he was never in APC but ACN and I wonder how APC can feel a loss about his decision to formalise his romance with an opposition party. “To address the concern raised on three of our leaders from Oke-Ogun axis of the state, I can tell you without a modicum of doubt that they all remain revered leaders of the APC until they personally come out to say otherwise. As a journalist, have you tried to move beyond hearsays and suspicion to establish their individual political party affiliation in view of the baseless rumour making the rounds? “If the trio are found to be playing the roles expected of them as responsible fathers-of-all in the political turf of the state by accommodating any young politician who seeks their attention, can the APC fault them on this? In view of recent political expediency, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo has had to either play host to some leaders of the APC or offer useful pieces of advice to us and that did not register him as a member of our party. “Governor Abiola Ajimobi and some leaders of our great party recently visited most parts of Oke-Ogun and they were able to assess the situation there and I can assure you that there is no cause for alarm regarding the popularity of the APC in all the nooks and crannies of the state. “In APC, we don’t see any need to balkanise Oyo State by juxtaposing our party’s support base by community. The people of the pacesetter state are one and we are optimistic that they would all judge our candidates in the 2015 elections on account of what we have been able to achieve in government in the last three and a half years or there about,” he said. Alao-Akala and LP The Labour Party became a force to be reckoned with in the politics of the state with the mass defection of young APC leaders into the party in February this year. The young leaders were like John the Baptist for Koleoso and others in LP. With the launch of a new improved LP, as the party was called then, a lot of attention was focused on it. But after a couple of months, LP lost steam, especially with Mimiko’s defection to the PDP. Alao-Akala, who had then been working secretly with leaders of LP in the state, intensified efforts to clinch PDP’s ticket following Mimiko’s defection to the PDP. But when it dawned on him he would not survive the power play in the umbrella party, he vigorously oiled the LP machinery as his alternative plan. A grand alliance was initially conceptualised among Ladoja, Alao-Akala and Koleosho. But that union collapsed when Ladoja was said to have told them the issue of governorship would not be open for discussion because he would run, while the other partners insisted every position was open to discussion. This left Alao-Akala, Koleoso and others from the APC in the alliance. When it became apparent the immediate past governor had been outplayed by Folarin in the PDP, frantic attempts were made at wooing Alao-Akala to various parties. A meeting between him and representatives of Accord Party last week hit a brick wall, when Akala said he was not interested in the Oyo North Senatorial ticket offered by the party. He was said to have told them he needed a party where he would get the governorship ticket. He also met with Tinubu over the possibility of his running in the party as governor. He was said to have been told by Tinubu to be content with a senatorial ticket and a deputy governor slot. Akala was said to have turned down the offer. Nigerian Tribune gathered that when Ajimobi got the news of Akala’s meeting with Tinubu, he called his predecessor and a meeting was scheduled for the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Ibadan, last Friday. At the meeting, Ajimobi was said to have asked Alao-Akala to consider switching over to APC rather than LP. A source in the know claimed that Ajimobi gave Alao-Akala a cheque of about N22 million representing the latter’s pension as a former governor and which had not been paid for a long time. The meeting ended with hope in the governor’s camp that Alao-Akala would join the APC. But the hope was dashed on Monday when he declared for LP. With the arrival of Alao-Akala in its fold, LP has regained momentum, just as it has jumped higher in the rating of pundits. Alao-Akala comes with a huge number of loyalists and supporters from across the state. There are a few challenges for LP on how to share the available. There are four major governorship hopefuls in LP apart from Alao-Akala who is likely to clinch the ticket. Others are Honourable Kazeem Adedeji, Chief Sharafadeen Alli, Mr Olu Abiala and Honourable Nurudeen Akinyo. The party leaders are now faced with Akala’s running mate from the four contenders. Adedeji and Alli are the front runners for the number two slot. In addition to the choice of a running mate, there is also the issue of allocation of the other tickets. Team Akala was said to have requested Oyo Central and North senatorial district tickets, a good number of the 14 House of Representatives slots and about 22 state House of Assembly seats. The request has set in motion a series of negotiations between Alao-Akala and the original tenants of LP. As of the time of this report, Alao-Akala has been given the central district, while that of the North would be decided between him and the leaders of the party from Oke Ogun zone. Decision was yet to be reached on other positions as of the time of this report. A source in Abuja told the Nigerian Tribune that Alao-Akala was “sternly warned” by President Goodluck Jonathan not to dump the PDP. To ensure he did not feel cheated in the power play, a ministerial slot was dangled before him to no avail. “He was called by President Jonathan, who told him not to leave the PDP for any party. But now that he appears not to have heeded that warning and is now in LP, it remains to be seen what will be the next line of action.” Despite the statement circulated by his press officer about his movement to LP, Alao-Akala told Nigerian Tribune on telephone that he was “still consulting on the issue of whether to go to LP or not.” He was said to have dropped the idea of ‘floating’ the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in Oyo for time constraint, as well as the financial implication of spreading the party to all the corners of the state, a challenge that confronted AP in 2011. LP’s spokesperson, Rasaq Folorunsho, while speaking on the new arrivals into the party, said: ““Akala’a arrival to LP is a good development for the party. It shows LP has fully come to limelight and Alao-Akala is going to be the next governor of the state. This is because of his attitude to governance, unlike what we have today where there is bad governance and bad leadership. Akala is leading Oyo State to the higher heights. LP has become a veritable platform in the state,” he said. Ladoja/Accord Party From being the dominant party in Ibadan metropolis, which boasts of more than one million votes and about 68 per cent of the total registered voters, Ladoja’s AP has been rated to have spread throughout the state. However, it is still trying to find its feet in Ogbomosho, which remains Alao-Akala’s stronghold. Observers remarked AP had conquered Oyo zone which has four local government councils and looks very good in Oyo South and Central Senatorial districts with the Senator Lanlehin and Chief Bisi Ilaka as its candidates in the districts. Pundits based their verdict on presence of the major political stakeholders in the districts in AP. In 2011, Lanlehin who was ACN candidate for Oyo South, polled 127, 691 votes to beat Accord’s Bayo Lawal who got 118, 256 votes. The winner of the election and runners-up are both members of Accord now. Of the 11 councils in the Central, five are in Ibadan- Oluyole, Akinyele, Ona Ara, Egbeda and Lagelu- are said to be some of AP’s strongholds. Four of the councils are in Oyo zone, where Ilaka is said to be very strong. Ladoja recently toured Oke Ogun, receiving defectors from APC and PDP into AP. He was also said to be well received met by the traditional rulers from the zone whose prayers and blessing he solicited for his aspiration to return as the governor of the state. However, a major hurdle before the party is how it will manage its hordes of aspirants. 64 aspirants are eyeing 14 House of Representatives seats and 243 are jostling for 32 state House of Assembly slots. But speaking with newsmen on the development, Ladoja said, “those waiting for implosion in Accord are waiting for Godot because we are a well-organised party. We have already resolved some of the tickets through consensus and we will still do more peacefully. One thing is sure: we are the government-in-waiting.” Folarin and PDP After a long-drawn out battle, Folarin emerged the PDP’s candidate as predicted by many pundits. In his camp are big leaders of the party like Chief Yekeen Adeojo, Senator Lekan Balogun, Chief Olajumoke Akinjide, Senator Hosea Agboola, Honourable Muraina Ajimobi, Honourable Rafiu Adekunle ,and m any others. Folarin had held the structure of the party for two years, having outsmarted others at the 2012 congress of the party. His first battle was against Akinjide’s factional executive which the Minister of State for the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) was ordered to collapse with the mainstream structure. That over, he moved to edge out Alao-Akala in the fierce power play for the ticket of the party and he succeeded. The former Senate Leader was uncomfortable with the move to draft Ladoja into the party. His closeness to Senate President, David Mark and the affinity between his wife, Angela, and Mark’s wife were said to have sealed the fate of other contenders for the ticket. Contrary to popular comments that Folarin has no chance of the foursome to win the governorship, the fact that not all the loyalists of Alao-Akala went with him to LP is a major boost for Folarin’s aspiration. House of Representatives Leader, Mulikat Akande-Adeola, is said to have told Akala she would not be going to LP form where people were already joining the PDP. She and another representative from Ogbomoso axis, Honourable Olusegun Odebunmi are staying put in PDP. In fact, Odebunmi is being touted as Folarin’s possible running mate. In Ibarapa axis too, Honourable Muraina is said to be holding fort for the PDP candidate, while Senator Agboola, Honourable Adekunle and others are holding the PDP for Folarin in Oke Ogun axis. He is also relying on the leaders from Ibadan to entrench himself in the state capital. While observers note that it is in the DNA of the political class to delight the electorate with real or imagined strength and play down their weakness, the first leg of the elections will ultimately separate the strong and the weak of the parties in the state
Posted on: Fri, 12 Dec 2014 06:18:23 +0000