This article hints at why I think this election is a toss-up. Low income urbanites support Chow en-masse, and city-wide high income earners support Tory (these are generalizations, but I believe they hold up). Fords voting base is primarily lower-middle class suburbanites. Now lets think these scenarios through. Suppose that Chow starts to tail off down the stretch. Do her marginal voters vote with the elites? Im not sure thats obvious. And how about if Tory tails off (this is the most interesting scenario)? His voting base is generally urbane, but more conservative than Chows. Do they break towards Ford or Chow? I suspect Ford and his voters arent going anywhere. Hes basically at his floor, and hell go down swinging if it comes to that. Im not sure what is going to happen, but I wouldnt give any of the three more than a 1/3 chance. I suspect itll be tight into the stretch, but its entirely possible that one candidate will try a failing gambit to separate from the pack, and the fallout wont necessarily be predictable. Or theyll just try to win on the ground game (Tory and Chow are more organized, but Fords voters are pretty motivated). Either way, its going to be interesting.
Posted on: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 18:57:39 +0000
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