Today there are two scenarios to look out for: (1) if the - TopicsExpress

Today there are two scenarios to look out for: (1) if the anti-Kiev forces in eastern Ukraine, reinforced by Moscow, can hold on, and if President Poroshenko then accepts the ceasefire brokered by Germany and France, then Russia will in fact win the initial phase of his Ukrainian campaign, reconsolidate, and be in a strong position to strike again; (2) if Poroshenko holds out against Western pressure and continues Ukraine’s campaign to recapture the east, Putin will in the end send in his regular military to protect his gains, finally eschewing all pretense. Either way, without Western military assistance, Kiev will be in no position to offer meaningful resistance to the dismemberment of the country.

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