Tough talk in Minsk, Putin will not leave Poroshenko choice --------------------------------------------------------------- Next week will Minsk meeting between the leaders of the Customs Union and the Ukrainian president Peter Poroshenko . In addition, the talks will be attended by three European Commissioner - head of European diplomacy , Catherine Ashton , EU Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht and EU Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger . Formally, of course, it will negotiate between Kiev and the Customs Union. In Minsk, Ukraine and the EU will make an effort to prove the partners in the Customs Union that the European choice of Ukraine does not bear economic threats to them, - said the head of the Mission of Ukraine to the EU Konstantin Eliseev . But in reality, most of the discussion, of course, will be held between Vladimir Putin and Peter Poroshenko. Presidents touch as the situation in the Donets Basin, and in the general Russian-Ukrainian relations (although, in fairness it should be noted that the Kremlin has not yet confirmed the talk of the bilateral meeting between Vladimir Putin and Poroshenko). ADVERTISEMENT Ukrainian media write about the future negotiations in Minsk as a great victory of the Ukrainian diplomacy, which allegedly failed to attract a significant number of negotiating discounts. In reality, the situation is somewhat less optimistic for Kiev. Poroshenko was glad to negotiate with Vladimir Putin, but only for a favorable background for the Ukrainian events. This would create a background, for example, or taking Lugansk Donetsk, and better of the two capitals of the unrecognized republics. However, this is no background - instead, negotiations will take place under entirely different conditions: the delay of the military operation, the elimination of Ukrainian militia units created in the boiler getting serious militia reinforcements from Russia and the beginning of the counter-offensive operations, mass protests in Ukraine, as well as calls for authorities to wrap battery with foil so they do not emit a lot of heat in the winter. It is clear that in such circumstances Poroshenko simply will not be able to put Vladimir Putin any severe conditions, but rather he will be forced to make a choice of the less attractive alternatives for yourself. So maybe it would be and I am glad to abandon the negotiation process, but the beginning of the fault on the Kiev Donbass humanitarian disaster and gradual sobering Europe did not allow him to evade the dialogue. Europe really is gradually drifting in favor of not only pro much more sober position, which is based on their own interests. Within the EU, begin a serious discussion, and the countries that originally opposed the conflict with Russia, sharply increased its rhetoric after the administration of Moscow retaliatory sanctions. Slovakia is a member of the EU, we want to be in solidarity player, but that does not mean that we go like sheep to the slaughterhouse. I am one of those prime ministers who are already at the first wave of sanctions have a clear objection. Im not talking about the second wave of sanctions - outraged Slovak Prime Robert Fico . Thus, the presence of Gunther Oettinger may mean that one of the topics at the talks will be the fate of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. It is no secret that Kiev was unable to develop a coherent strategy on how the country can survive the winter without Russian gas. Negotiate the same with Moscow to resume deliveries Ukrainians do not want to - prevent their ego as well as the expense of a $ 5 billion for the previously deflated Russian gas. Therefore, analysts do not exclude that in the winter just Ukraine will start selecting transit blue fuel, then Russia may reduce the volume of transit. According to the results of another Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict will freeze Europe, so Brussels would like to avoid this scenario. As for the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations on the Donbas theoretically in Minsk, Moscow and Kiev to agree. As you know, official and unofficial, Russias position is to maintain the territorial integrity of Ukraine and its transformation into a federal or confederal state. For Russia, this is the best option because of its implementation at two further scenarios for the situation in Ukraine - positive (restoration of state institutions and the subsequent conversion of the federation in the neutral state) and negative (increased centrifugal tendencies and peaceful divorce through federal institutions) are not responsible for Moscow Special risks. For Poroshenko, if you look at the situation rationally and objectively, the failure of the military operation, which began in the region of a humanitarian catastrophe (to which Russia has attracted worldwide attention with the help of a humanitarian convoy) and the gradual adjustment of the line in Europe, too, does not leave much of a choice but to start the negotiation process and complete civil war, giving special status to the Donbas. However, Ukrainian society is not ready to support the idea of peace talks with the separatists and politicians are afraid to go against the public on the eve of elections to the Verkhovna Rada. Also here a lot will depend on the position of the United States and the IMF. If you put the tough lending as a condition of the negotiation process, believe me - the negotiations will go quickly. Formula will be a war - not loans means a serious destabilizing power. If on the contrary credits after the victory a layout will be different, - says Expert Online Russian political analyst Sergei Markedonov. Americans, however, are likely to take such steps will not go - they benefit from the delay of the civil war in the Ukraine. Therefore, it is very likely that there is no peace agreement signed in Minsk will not. However, this does not mean that the Minsk meeting will be useless. In any case, the holding of such a summit - already some progress. Poroshenko and Vladimir Putin will be able to at least share their views without intermediaries, to listen to each other, and perhaps even to outline certain red lines for which the transition is forbidden. In addition, it is possible that the experience made in Minsk dialogue will help them in subsequent meetings. So, in September, French President Francois Hollande wants to convene in Paris, the so-called Norman quartet - the leaders of Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine. It is possible that by this time the situation at the fronts for Poroshenko will become more complicated, and European leaders are under pressure from their own businesses to be more rational look at the Ukrainian civil war and its consequences. q99.it/sJbRFNo expert.ru/2014/08/21/pochemu-petru-poroshenko-poka-ne-nuzhen-mir/
Posted on: Thu, 21 Aug 2014 21:14:51 +0000
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