****Tropical Chantal Forecast Discussion**** Conventional and microwave satellite has shown that the tropical wave in the Central Atlantic has formed a closed circulation and is now Tropical Storm Chantal. A strong subtropical ridge will help to steer Chantal mainly in a Westerly direction and then a more West-North Westerly course. Later in the forecast period, a weakness will develop in the subtropical ridge and Chantal should then bend more to the North West and possibly even North. The system will then decelerate by days 4 and 5. Favorable conditions should allow Chantal to increase in intensity over the next few days. There is a possibility with an interaction with land around Cuba and Hispaniola. This interaction could weaken the cyclone as it moves near the Bahamas. In addition, higher wind shear could also affect the system as it moves towards the Southern US. We will have to watch the track and intensity over the next day or so to see that this will verify. The most immediate threat will be to the Leeward Islands. joesdiscoweathercentral/Joe_s_Disco_Hurricane_Page.html
Posted on: Mon, 08 Jul 2013 04:02:21 +0000