Updated: November 5, 2013, 12:25 PM ET By Tom Haberstroh | ESPN Insider One week down, 23 more to go. It might feel like weve learned a few things about this NBA season in seven days, but dont confuse excitement for knowledge. This is the time of year that drives statistical analysts bonkers. Try predicting the winner of a basketball game and all the box-score stats of the players after watching the first two minutes of the first quarter. Thats the sample size were dealing with here. So, whats a fluke and whats for real? Or to steal a line from Nate Silver, Whats the signal and whats the noise? Theres plenty of noise out there, but our job is to lead you toward the signal. Lets play a little buy or sell with seven days worth of storylines. Buy or Sell: The Minnesota Timberwolves are West contenders. Sell. Not on board just yet, but its tempting. Optimism in Minnesota is running high after the Wolves became one of four teams to start out 3-0 before falling to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a nail-biter Monday night. We shouldnt be totally surprised by their hot start -- the SCHOENE projection system was bullish in the preseason, picking the Wolves to finish sixth in the West with a 52-30 record. Theyve been juggernauts on the run, scoring more points per game in transition than any other team, according to Synergy data. Kevin Love already has converted more long-distance passes than any Vikings quarterback thus far, thanks to the unrelenting Corey Brewer leak outs, but transition only is a small portion of the game. The other 85 percent of the game resides in the half court, in which the Wolves havent been nearly as successful. Also, with a core of Love, Ricky Rubio and Kevin Martin, Im still nervous about their health over the long haul, and their three wins have come against the unsettled Knicks, the Russell Westbrook-less Thunder and the Magic (in overtime). Well learn more on Wednesday against the Golden State Warriors. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buy or Sell: Michael Carter-Williams will be Rookie of the Year. Sell. This one stings a bit because hes just so fun to watch. But carving Carter-Williams name into the trophy feels premature, especially after he shot 4-for-17 and coughed up the ball six times on Monday night against Golden State. That outing falls more in line with what I expected from the 22-year-old who shot 28.4 percent on jumpers last season at Syracuse and 26.7 percent in the preseason, according to Synergy tracking. From the looks of it, hes going to play a ton of minutes and fill up the stat sheet -- turnovers included. On the other side of the ball, hes going to be an absolute headache for opposing point guards. He puts his 6-foot-6 frame to good use and hounds the ball with boundless energy, which has generated gobs of steals. Good luck keeping up that off-the-charts activity level, but its an encouraging sign from a kid who could have packed it in this season and no one would have batted an eye. If the 76ers are tanking, no one told the rookie guard. Carter-Williams is still my bet to make first-team All-Rookie, but Victor Oladipo remains the favorite here for the Rookie of the Year hardware. Once the Orlando Magic find a taker for Jameer Nelson, the Oladipo show can begin in earnest. Keeping Oladipo and Andrew Nicholson on the bench for about half the game is a great way to add more pingpong balls, so kudos to coach Jacque Vaughn for the honesty. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buy or Sell: The Knicks will miss the playoffs. Sell. Though that could change if coach Mike Woodson stops insisting on going big, with Andrea Bargnani next to Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler in the starting lineup. Heres the thing: Bargnani doesnt play big. He hasnt blocked a shot yet this season and hes averaging a pathetic 3.5 rebounds per 36 minutes. If we pull in his numbers from last season, hes averaging 4.5 rebounds and 0.8 blocks per 36 minutes, which is almost identical to John Wall (4.3 rebounds, 0.8 blocks). Also, Wall is: (1) a point guard and (2) eight inches shorter than Bargnani. In reality, Bargnani is more like a shooting guard in centers clothing. Woodsons in a tough spot since his bosses gave up a first-round pick and an elite shooter in Steve Novak to get him, but the Anthony-Bargnani-Chandler trio has been an outright disaster in the early going, getting blown away by 20 points in the 34 minutes on the floor together. If the results dont turn around soon, the Knicks have to abandon the big lineup and stick Anthony primarily at the 4, where he belongs in the first place. SCHOENEs gloomy projection -- the one that predicted the Knicks to finish 37-45 this season -- is looking pretty spot-on in the opening stages. SCHOENE simulations believed that the Knicks would struggle to shoot 3s this season and so far, the Knicks havent made SCHOENE eat its numbers; the Knicks have shot 30.4 percent from deep after being one of the most successful 3-point shooting teams in NBA history last season. Still, with the way the East looks, the Knicks could finish 41-41 and coast into the playoff picture. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buy or Sell: Lakers will finish below .500. Buy. You always have to worry about knee-jerk reactions this time of year. And that dramatic win over the Los Angeles Clippers on opening night? Yeah, dont put too much stock into that one. Its never a good sign when a 39-year-old starting point guard is suffering from nerve damage resulting from a fractured left leg injury that occurred two Halloweens ago. Oh, and his teammate, a 35-year-old star shooting guard, is still likely weeks away from returning from a ruptured Achilles tendon, one of the most significant leg injuries. Despite Mike DAntonis best efforts, its hard to see how the Lakers score with Nash playing on one leg and Xavier Henry being the go-to scorer on the wing. Henry has filled Kobe Bryants place admirably, especially considering he was last seen as a borderline D-League player. Theres no doubt that he has a knack for getting to the free throw line, but hes a lifetime 61.9 percent shooter there, which mitigates some of that value. Also, Im leaning toward the career 28.9 percent 3-point shooter that Henry was entering the season, not the one currently at a 45.5 percent clip from deep. If Nash, Bryant and Pau Gasol could play lengthy minutes together as a healthy trio, Id feel more optimistic about their chances at finishing with a winning record. Gasol, in particular, can still play at a high level when put in the right spots. But Im not sure well be lucky enough to see those three work together at full capacity anytime soon -- or at all. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buy or Sell: Randy Wittman will be first coach fired. Buy. We never like to see coaches -- or anyone -- lose their livelihood, but this feels like a safe pick at this point. Consider the circumstances. Wittman has a career .333 winning percentage as an NBA head coach; the Wizards wouldnt exactly be letting go of Red Auerbach. We have a desperate front office that has pushed all its chips into the middle for a playoff spot, as evidenced by the preseason trade of injured defensive anchor Emeka Okafor and a first-round pick for the services of Marcin Gortat. And to top it off, the Wizards are still searching for a win after starting out 0-12 last season and 0-8 in 2011-12. Patience isnt exactly seeping through their pores. Help probably isnt on the way, either. Nene still is battling leg issues which goes down as the least surprising news of the season and to make matters worse, the teams No. 3 overall pick, Otto Porter Jr., hasnt played in a game in more than three months because of lingering hip flexor and hamstring issues that sidelined the rookie during summer league. Its no surprise that theyve struggled to stop anybody so far this season, hemorrhaging 108.1 points per 100 possessions thus far. If Wittmans truly a defensive-minded coach, he needs to prove it now. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buy or Sell: Anthony Davis will be an All-Star. Buy. Yeah, so maybe the preseason dominance wasnt a fluke. Davis has been nothing short of breathtaking so far this season, whether youre watching the film or checking the box score. His per-game numbers? How bout 23.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, 4.0 blocks and 2.7 steals per game. That, my friends, is ridiculous. The Pelicans can take heart in the fact Davis PER of 35.0 checks in at second highest in the league behind former New Orleans hero Chris Paul. The future is now. But because Davis plays in the worst market in the league, its unlikely that hell generate enough fan votes to overtake incumbent West starters Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard or Blake Griffin. Its worth mentioning that Chandler Parsons finished with more fan votes last season than Davis. But the West coach will have a tough time sorting out the reserve candidates. Whod lose his spot on the West reserves? A number of injuries could open the door for Davis, but the guess here is that its probably Zach Randolph, who was selected last season mostly as the designated rep of the surprising Grizzlies. If Tim Duncan can return to anywhere near his level of play in 2012-13, itll be hard for the West coach to deny Duncan a spot after what he did in the postseason. If Davis keeps this up -- his per-minute numbers from last season suggest most of this is very real -- hell have no problem making the first of what should be many All-Star appearances. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buy or Sell: Celtics will finish No. 1 in Tank Rank. Sell. It seems crazy now, but Id still lean toward Orlando, Phoenix or Philadelphia over Boston to win the worst-record sweepstakes. With Avery Bradley on point guard duty, the offense has had a tough time in the early going and been almost unbearable to watch, mustering just 93.2 points per 100 possessions, the third-worst rate in the league ahead of the Bobcats and Cavaliers. The Celtics basically cant score unless Jordan Crawford is on the floor, which is a surefire sign that your team is in tank mode. Thus, Chad Fords got the Cs as his top team in the weekly Tank Rank. But unlike the other tankers, the Celtics should have Rajon Rondo returning at some point, which should help matters. Despite Bostons best efforts to make Bradley into a point guard, Bradley isnt anything more than a nominal one. The truth is that Bradley runs an offense as if hes being guarded by Avery Bradley. So far, the 23-year-old has more turnovers and assists while shooting 1-for-10 from downtown and earning one trip to the free throw line in 130 minutes. Sometimes, a tiger cant change its stripes. Of course, Id change my vote here if the Celtics trade Rondo at midseason for some long-term assets, which is still within the realm of possibility. Ultimately, the Celtics have been on the losing side of four close games in a row. Thatll happen to some bad teams at some point this season. Boston just happened to do it at the start of the season.
Posted on: Tue, 05 Nov 2013 17:43:50 +0000
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