WEATHER SYNOPSIS: Nov 25 at 0630am ■ 2 Potential;1 LPA/s;0 Active;0 Threat ■ ☆ TODAYS FORECAST w/in PAR ⊙ 93W SYSTEM a WEAK SYSTEM but a rain-maker spotted Southeast of Palau near 6.5n 135.5e drifting W & forecast to enter PAR b/w Today. It will cross b/w Visayas-Mindanao area from 26th to 28th, bringing MODERATE to HEAVY RAINS over Caraga, Visayas, Bicol, MiMaRoPa, CaLaBaRZon & SCATTERED RAINS rest of the Regions. FORECAST TRACKS IN LOW CONFIDENCE. ☆ FORECAST IN NEXT 7 DAYS * within 110E to 160E & Equator to 30N * ⊙ PA1 a WEAK SYSTEM, to show up b/w TODAY & 25th & Pre-tracks shows ut will move across Visayas-Mindanao. ⊙ PA2 A STRONG SYSTEM, to show up or it entered the Coverage area on the 29th. *NOTE: → Monitored or Spotted Potential Area(PA) is subject for ADJUSTMENTS or CHANGES due to the absence of the System actual Structure. → Pre-tracks is to guide or to have knowledge the possible path of the System, when it is seen or visible. ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update ■ ※ As of Nov 18 ※ → Climate models indicate the MJO will move east over the Indian Ocean this week, however, there are a range of predictions of the MJOs likely strength. → When the MJO is active over the Indian Ocean, it typically enhances convection over the Indian Ocean, while suppressing convection over tropical parts of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific Ocean. → MJO outlooks beyond a fortnight should be treated with considerable caution, as there is significant uncertainty surrounding the predicted strength and speed of movement of this current MJO signal. ※ Next MJO Update : Nov 25 ※ ~~~~~ °° Winds:1 kts = 1.852 kph ~ TD:139 kts °° Rainfall: 1mm/min = 0.0394 in/min = 2.364 in/hr °° Distance: 1 mi = 1.609 km ■ Satellite Imagery: GOES & NOAA Satellite. ■ Category/Intensity by World Meteorological Organization ■ Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO) Update by NOAA-ESRL ■ Thanks to NRL, CIMSS, NOAA, JTWC & WMO for PTU/PWS Basic Weather Forecasting & Pre-Forecast Tracking. © philweathersystem.weebly/
Posted on: Mon, 24 Nov 2014 22:43:07 +0000
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