Weekend Winners – Saturday, March 15 edition Racenet - 14/03/2014 Welcome to Weekend winners, your one-stop tipping sheet for Saturday. RANDWICK GUINEAS TIP – BULL POINT (Randwick – Race 7 No. 7): Gai Waterhouse-trained gallopers over the Randwick mile in Group Is is a recipe for success. Bull Point can be a bit hard to catch but we think a return to his home track will see him produce his best. If he does then he could well be the best horse in this race. Damien Oliver reported after his last run that he was of the opinion the horse was ridden a bit close in the Futurity Stakes and on the line he was less than two lengths behind Moment Of Change. Remember his effort last year in the Golden Rose? He missed the start hopelessly that day and spotted his rivals a Shannon-like start (refer to the Epsom on 1946) before charging home to finish 1-3/4 lengths behind Zoustar and Dissident in third. A repeat of that effort would see him winning this so we’ll go with him at $9. CANTERBURY STAKES TIP – APPEARANCE (Randwick – Race 8 No. 6): There’s no doubting the three-year-olds will prove hard to beat but provided Appearance has taken no harm from a tying up episode recently, she will give them plenty to think about. This mare is fair dinkum airborne this preparation, scoring soft wins in the Expressway and Apollo Stakes, both at weight-for-age. She was scheduled to go to the Chipping Norton last week but trainer Guy Walter had a change of heart the week after her Apollo win when the mare tied up (muscle pain and stiffness) after a gallop. You have to back Walter’s judgement to be running her here and it’s been well documented in the past that Appearance has previously overcome the same problem. If she turns up here the same mare that won her first two races of the preparation, the $6.50 about town could prove great value. STAR BET – A TIME FOR JULIA (Randwick - Race 6 No. 6): This Victorian mare created a good impression in her first Sydney run when a game second to Red Tracer in the Group II Millie Fox Stakes after recording a solid first-up win at Caulfield in the Group III Bellmaine Stakes. We believe she’s been well served here at the weights, being on the high minimum of 55kg. Let’s compare her record at black-type level to the favourite Lilliburlero. A Time For Julia has started six times in Group and Listed races for a win and three placings, which also include a close-up third behind Catkins in the spring, whereas Lilliburlero’s six runs at that level show her first-up win in the Group III Triscay Stakes as being her only placing. Lilliburlero (56kg) has to give her weight on Saturday and we believe A Time For Julia has the best form references in the race. The bookies are offering $4.80. VALUE TIP – RESISTANT (Bendigo – Race 8 No. 2): For a $21 chance, this horse has plenty in his favour here. His record at the 1400 metres is outstanding with two wins and two placings from five starts. Last three runs at this distance have returned a win in a benchmark 90 race in Adelaide, a fourth behind Long John beaten three lengths in the Henry Bucks Stakes, and a third behind Late Charge beaten 2-1/2 lengths where he had to give the winner 2kgs. Third-up here and in-form hoop Chad Schofield climbs aboard. Great each-way odds. TEMPO TIP – GO THE KNUCKLE (Moonee Valley – Race 7 No. 4): The key to this race is the speed. On paper, six of the nine runners can vie for the lead which is likely to suit a backmarker. Although Moonee Valley normally favours front runners, backmarkers can also come into contention when there is speed on because it is a well cambered surface. A couple of these runners are a query at the 1200 metres and a strong tempo up front is likely to find a few of these out. Go The Knuckle maps to get a lovely run back in the field and can further enhance his Moonee Valley record of five starts for a win and three placings. Won well first-up around here and has won second-up before. Runs a strong 1200 metres which will serve him well in this profile of race. Gave 3.5kg to Le Bonsir (topweight here on 59kg) this time last year and finished two lengths ahead of him over this course and distance. A great each-way bet at $6.50. FORMLINE TIP – SURGE AHEAD (Moonee Valley - Race 6 No. 3): Has been thrown in the deep end in his two runs back this preparation and been far from disgraced. First-up in the CS Hayes Stakes over 1400 metres he was beaten 5-1/5 lengths when blowing out in condition over the latter stages of the race. Then went to the Group I Australian Guineas over 1600 metres and stuck on well to finish just under two lengths astern of Shamus Award. Third-up around Moonee Valley he stays at the mile and can cross from the wide barrier and sit up on the speed. This may still be a Group II race but is significantly easier than what he has been contesting this preparation and he meets them at set weights. IMPORT TIP – SPILLWAY (Bendigo – Race 7 No.11): David Hayes won this race with an import called Jet Away, last year - remember him? This year he could repeat that win with his new acquisition Spillway. Spillway won three races in succession over in Europe before graduating to Group III and Group II level. Ran against the likes of Foundry, a Lloyd Williams import that is already a winner and Group II placed on Australian soil from two starts. Will be better over further but the Australian style of training should have him sharp enough to win over a mile first-up, especially on the minimum weight (54kg). The other import in the race, a Williams horse named Shikarpour, also has claims but Spillway looks to have the better credentials of the two. $8 is an attractive price. HORSES FOR COURSES TIP – COMMANDARE (Gold Coast - Race 5 No. 1): Not raced since winning on Magic Millions day here back in January so fair to say he’s been set for this. His superior record at the Gold Coast (5:2-3-0) and the 1200 metres (9:4-3-2) would be enough to convince most punters to take $10. Allocated the top weight with 59kg but will claim 3kg courtesy of apprentice rider Samuel Payne, who has won on the horse before. With its tight turns and unique starts, the Gold Coast track invariably favours those that have had experience there. Interesting to note that at the last Saturday metropolitan meeting at the Gold Coast (Magic Millions day) four of the eight winners had either won or placed at the track in previous starts.
Posted on: Fri, 14 Mar 2014 03:18:41 +0000
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