Were Still Playing Small Ball We knew before 9/11 that an airplane could be hi-jacked and we even expected it might happen. We never dreamed that four of them would be hi-jacked almost simultaneously and that three of them would be crashed into the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. We were playing small ball in our thinking. Almost thirteen years later, we assumed that when MH370s transponder and radio communications went silent, there had been a catastrophic event and the plane had crashed. We continued to pursue that theoretical thread for days despite emerging evidence to the contrary. We again played small ball and were continuing to do so. We will be able to count ourselves lucky if we find the planes wreckage anywhere, because I can guarantee that crashing the plane would be the only thing about this flight that was unintentional. You dont steal a large airplane and fly it all over the back of beyond for several (now being reported as up to seven) hours just to crash it. You also dont steal it, do all that flying and land it somewhere and hide it, just to crash it into some building somewhere on some future date. If thats what was intended, MH370 could have been flown to its Beijing destination, Seoul Korea, or elsewhere and crashed into a major building or complex the night it went missing. If the plane made it to land and landed safely, what future purpose might whoever stole it have for it? Well, if I stop thinking small ball, its a purpose with a major impact on the world stage and maybe the biggest one of all. We know that North Korea has nuclear devices. We think we know how many they might possibly have based on what we previously knew about their uranium enrichment and plutonium extraction programs. But since we dont definitely know how many devices they possess, we wouldnt know if theyd given one away to some country or terrorist organization. Similarly, the Israeli prime minister reported that Iran could have enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear device by the summer ... last summer, that is. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) knows as much about Irans nuclear program as Iran has let the IAEA inspect, which is not everything nor every facility. Iran might already possess an untested nuclear device. We dont know. Do we really know if every nuclear device produced by Pakistan is present and under lock and key? Do we really trust Pakistans security service, the ISI, some of whom are known to be sympathetic to the Taliban and other Islamic extremists? MH370, a Boeing 777-200ER is a passenger aircraft, but its cargo hold is large enough to store a nuclear device. Todays reports are that MH370 could have been flown as far as the border of Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. I guess theyre talking about that little bit of border nearest the Caspian Sea, because Uzbekistan separates the two countries for what would be most of their borders. Who knows. We are, after all, talking about the news media, not geographers. To make it easy on myself, I chose Tashkent Uzbekistan. No, I dont think MH370 is at Tashkents airport nor any countrys government-controlled airport. Tashkent is just a convenient starting point in the general area of where the news media reported MH370 could have landed. The 777-200ER has a maximum range of 7,725 nautical miles (nm). A direct flight from Tashkent to NYC is 5508 nm, well within the 777s range. The problem would be in making it that far either undetected or posing as a legitimate flight. The flight route goes over a large area of Russia, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Greenland, Canada, and the coastal northeast U.S. The air traffic control (ATC) systems are modern and the air defense systems are formidable. Although the distances are much shorter, the same ATC and air defense problems arise when attempting to reach potential target cities in Europe. A direct flight from Tashkent to Tel Aviv Israel, however, is only 1728 nm and the flight time would be less than three and half hours. The flight route would be over Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, northern Iran, northern Iraq, Syria, and a just a smidgen of Jordan. Not the best ATC systems in the world for much of the flight and, except for Iran and Syria, not much of an air defense threat to speak of until just before the target. The scenario would be either to fly electronically dark as MH370 did on the night it went missing, or to fly through Uzbekistan and Turkmenistans ATC systems reporting as either a visual flight rules aircraft below 18,000 feet or an instrument flight rules private aircraft above 18,000 feet. The ATC radars initially know and display who and what an aircraft is through aircrew self-reporting either by radio communication or flight plan filing. In other words, initial entry into the system is based on honesty. In either case, the 777 would go electronically dark before reaching northern Iran, would descend to very low altitude, and make a high-speed dash across northern Iran, northern Iraq, and Syria if for no other reason than to give those three countries some credibility in saying they saw nothing. The 777 would at the last minute or so climb to be at several thousand feet above Tel Aviv (ala the Hiroshima detonation altitude) and the aircrew would detonate the device inside the aircraft: the worlds first nuclear suicide bombers. Even if it could be determined where the device originated from by technically sniffing the fallout, who would do anything about it after the fact? If the device originated from Iran, of course Israel would retaliate. But Israel couldnt reach Pakistan or North Korea if the device originated from either of those places. Would the U.S. do much of anything beyond blather about consequences? I have my doubts. Yeah, I know. Im one sick puppy. Maybe so. But its way past time we stopped thinking small ball.
Posted on: Mon, 17 Mar 2014 02:01:28 +0000