Who Needs Reality?: Excellent Fantasy Football Starts for Week 14: Former Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim E. Mora once infamously said, Playoffs? Dont talk about playoffs! Well sorry, Jim, but I do want to talk about playoffs, for it is Week 14 in the NFL season, which means the fantasy football playoffs are upon us. If youve made it this far in your leagues, congratulations; managing a fantasy football squad to success amid the injuries, bye weeks and roster changes that define an NFL season is no easy task. If youre playing relevant fantasy football in Week 14, pat yourself on the back. While this is a glorious and thrilling time of year, it is also a very precarious time for fantasy football owners. Most leagues operate in a single-game-elimination playoff style, so setting the right lineup is more crucial then ever. Furthermore, a forgotten factor that could be a thorn in your fantasy side is weather. December is upon us, which means that cold weather and/or snow could severely hinder the flow and outcomes of NFL games. Its extremely crucial to check the weather reports across the country on game day. For example, if Sam Champion is calling for a blizzard in Chicago, you may want to consider sitting the guys playing at Soldier Field that week. All of this is just speculation, however, and if youve made it this far, you know what youre doing. Moving on, here are some fantasy football starts that I would feel comfortable making and that I feel have a high likelihood of success in Week 14. Please remember that I use a standard scoring system when projecting these points: * One point per 10 rushing or receiving yards * One point per 25 passing yards * Six points for each rushing or receiving touchdown * Four points for passing touchdowns * Minus-two points for interceptions and fumbles lost Additionally, be sure to stay tuned to the official NFL injury report to get the official word on who is in and who is out come game day. Finally, please remember that with this column, I intend to list players you should start who wouldnt be ultra-obvious picks. Therefore, I wont be telling you to start Peyton Manning, Matt Forte, Julio Jones, etc. Quarterbacks to Start Although hes the eighth-highest-scoring fantasy quarterback in standard leagues this season, Jay Cutler has not been a model of consistency. Subsequently, and fittingly, he is not a must-start in most peoples eyes. The Chicago Bears have been rather enigmatic this season: While on paper they should be a high-scoring, successful team, they sit at 5-7 and have struggled to move the ball on offense this season. Cutler hasnt been awful, but he hasnt done a ton to make matters better either. His 14 interceptions are the second-most in the league, and he often seems unmotivated when playing from behind. Personally, I think the Bears play-calling is atrocious, and theyre horribly misusing their offensive assets, but thats a conversation for another time. On Thursday Night Football in Week 14, I would feel comfortable rolling with Cutler against the Dallas Cowboys. The game is in Chicago, and the Bears tend to play well against the Cowboys. Cutler might be messy at times and toss an interception, yet he should rack up some yardage and throw two or three touchdowns as well. * 320 yards, one interception and three touchdowns = 24 points Other Solid Ball-Throwers * Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins: Tannehill has found himself on my start list a lot this season, and for the most part hes made me look wise. Last week, however, he was an epic disappointment. Facing the New York Jets on Monday Night Football, Tannehill and the Dolphins struggled to move the ball all night. This week against the Baltimore Ravens, Tannehill is back in Miami, where he plays best, and I am giving him a chance to redeem himself. The Ravens should be able to stifle Miamis run game and give Tannehill a lot of chances to throw the ball. * Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers: Kaepernick has been so bad and disappointing this season; he currently ranks as only the 23rd-best fantasy quarterback. For a guy who was drafted where he was, thats awful. The 49ers may be 7-5, but it feels like they should have a much worse record. If Kaepernick is your fantasy quarterback and you are in the playoffs, the rest of your team must be amazing, The good news for Kaepernick owners is that he should have a great game this Sunday. Hes playing the Oakland Raiders, who look, in a word, terrible. Running Backs to Start New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram is far from the leagues flashiest runner but has scored 12 or more fantasy points in four of his last six games. The Saints are a pass-happy team but have been giving Ingram plenty of carries this season: Hes received 23 or more carries in all but one of his last six games. The good times should continue for Ingram this week when the Saints host the Carolina Panthers. I expect Ingram to receive his standard 23-25 carries and slowly but surely make something happen. Thats been his modus operandi this season, and if youre an Ingram owner, youre not complaining. * 110 yards and a touchdown = 17 points Other Solid Ball-Runners * Dan Herron, Indianapolis Colts: Herron, also known by Boom, is clearly the best running back on Indianapolis roster, and everyone knows it. Herron is an explosive and smart runner with the ability to turn small plays into huge gains. Andrew Luck is the king in Indianapolis, and the Colts are going to pass before they run, but Herron should make something happen with however many touches he gets. Last week he accumulated 88 yards on only eight carries. I would love to see what he does with a full workload of 15 or more carries. * Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans: Merely suggesting Sankey as a start candidate in the fantasy football playoffs feels wrong, but its impossible to overlook the great matchup he has this weekend. The New York Giants have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, so while Sankey has been remarkably unimpressive, this may be his one great week of the season. * Rashad Jennings or Andre Williams, New York Giants: If Jennings is healthy enough to suit up on Sunday against the Titans, start him with confidence. Right now his status is very up-in-the-air, so this is certainly a situation to keep a close eye on. Should he sit, however, his backup Andre Williams is still a great start. Williams is not the runner that Jennings is, but the Titans run defense is so bad that almost any professional-caliber running back should be able to succeed against them. Wide Receivers to Start In Week 14, I think Miami Dolphins wide receiver Mike Wallace will feast on a weak Baltimore Ravens secondary. Wallace hasnt recorded more than 100 receiving yards in a game yet this season, so I think he is due for a huge week. The Dolphins are very hungry to make the playoffs, and I believe in this squad. Wallace and the rest of the Dolphins will be playing their hearts out through the rest of the season. * Nine catches, 105 yards and a touchdown = 16 points (25 in PPR) Other Solid Pass-Catchers * Stedman Bailey, St. Louis Rams: Second-year wide receiver Stedman Bailey came out of basically nowhere and has since recorded two great games in a row. Being that Bailey is young, unproven and plays for the Rams, starting him is certainly risky, yet his matchup against the Washington Redskins this week should certainly bolster your confidence in him. Hes been hot, and with this matchup Ill bet that it continues. * Kenny Stills, New Orleans Saints: With Brandin Cooks out for the season and Marques Colston past his prime, Stills is Saints quarterback Drew Brees go-to wide receiver right now. As we saw last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, this is a role that should command respect both on the football field and in fantasy football rosters. Whether its racking up yardage or scoring touchdowns, Stills will find a way to score at least 11 fantasy points this week. * Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts: With the exception of Wallace, every wide receiver I am recommending for this week could still be unowned in your fantasy league. Moncrief certainly falls into this category, so if youre in need of a receiver, check the waiver wire to see if Moncrief is available to pick up. Colts quarterback Andrew Luck needs a threatening target besides T.Y. Hilton, and Moncrief fits the bill. Hilton will likely be covered by Cleveland Browns star cornerback Joe Haden this Sunday, so Luck could be looking Moncriefs way often. Tight Ends to Start Ah, the ghost town known as fantasy tight ends. Once a vibrant community of talented players receiving ample and consistent workloads, it is now a desolate shell of its former self with a population of about four. And just when you thought the fantasy tight end position couldnt get any worse, New Orleans Saints tight end Jimmy Graham, one of the two stud tight ends this season, put up zero points last week despite his quarterback throwing five touchdowns. But I digress. At this point, unless you own Graham, Julius Thomas or Rob Gronkowski, youre likely happy with five fantasy points from your tight end in standard formats (yup, they are officially lower scoring assets than kickers). Here are some guys with favorable matchups who can hopefully acquire more than five measly fantasy points: * Martellus Bennett, Chicago Bears: After a hot start, Bennett has been wildly inconsistent of late, yet hes still the second-most targeted tight end after Gronkowski. This alone makes him worth starting on a weekly basis. He may put up a dud and get you three points, yet his upside is higher than most other guys at his position. * Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: Gates is the fourth-highest scoring fantasy tight end in standard formats, yet his production has gone through major ebbs and flows. Against the New England Patriots on Sunday Night Football this week, I love him. This is the type of game where Gates shines. * Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings play the New York Jets this week, and while the Jets are horrible at everything related to football, they are especially miserable at covering tight ends. Only the Chicago Bears have given up more points to opposing tight ends this season, so Jason Witten of the Dallas Cowboys is also worth a start this week. Defense/Special Teams to Start I think the Buffalo Bills are a great success story this season and have highly overachieved,but they are not well suited to take on the Denver Broncos in Denver. This game will be all Broncos, and I think the Bills will get sloppy playing from behind. Therefore I love the Broncos D/ST as a start this week. Other Solid Defense/Special Teams Starts * Minnesota Vikings (vs. New York Jets) * Seattle Seahawks (at Philadelphia Eagles) * Kansas City Chiefs (at Arizona Cardinals) There we go folks. I wish you all the best of luck in Week 1 of the fantasy football playoffs and Week 14 of the NFL season. If youve made it this far, remember what has gotten you here and stick with that strategy and philosophy. Fantasy football is a peculiar game; for all the skill and research it requires, sometimes all of the expertise in the world cannot bring about victory. Every year, I realize more and more how much intuition can lead to fantasy success. With that being said, if you have a gut feeling, roll with it; worse comes to worst, at least youll go down listening to yourself. Remember, reality is for schmucks—we have fantasy. Who needs reality? Joe Rapolla Jr. is a Denver Broncos featured columnist and fantasy football writer for Bleacher Report. All stats are courtesy of NFL and FFToday. Read more NFL news on BleacherReport #NFL #FantasyFootball #Fantasy
Posted on: Thu, 04 Dec 2014 16:48:34 +0000
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