he Big Picture he US dollar was stronger against all the major currencies ter the ECB’s decision to keep its monetary policy changed, leaving key policy rates at their historical lows. he dollar continued to gain throughout the day after the vish comments by Mario Draghi. In terms of market action, the euro fell immediately just after the ECB nference started, breaking below the 1.3150 level against e dollar within one hour falling almost 120 pips during the S session. oving north, the bank of England has been influenced by overnor Mark Carney policy to keep their interest rates in low vels amid strengthening economic recovery, thus the BoE pt their bond-buying program and interest rates unchanged. he GBP rose significantly against the EUR during the BoE nouncement and extended its gains during the ECB press nference recording a fresh low at 0.8407 EUR/GBP. ertainly, the biggest figure of the month is the US non-farm yrolls for August. The market is expecting an increase in the yrolls with survey showing 180k vs 161k the previous onth. The unemployment rate is expected to remain changed at 7.4%. Yesterday’s US jobs data was couraging; the ADP employment change for August was a odest +176k but initial jobless claims continued to move wer and the employment component of the non- anufacturing ISM index was extremely strong. A better-than- pected non-farm payrolls figure will likely put the Fed on ack to begin tapering off its bond purchases in September, expected, which would probably send the dollar still higher. t this point even a disappointing report might result in just a aller degree of tapering, say USD 10bn a month instead of e USD 20bn or so that is expected. That could be neutral or en bearish for the dollar. aving as a ‘main course’ today the US non-farm payrolls, we ubt if the rest of the economic indicators will have much pact on the today market as we expect the NFP report to ive the market. In today’s economic calendar, we have the erman Trade balance and the current account for July. UK nsumer inflations expectations and consumer confidence pectations for August. Also, UK will release figures on dustrial production and on manufacturing production for ly. Finally, Canada will release data on unemployment rate r August which is expected to remain unchanged at 7.2%. the G20 meeting, U.S President Barack Obama came under essure from Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and other orld leaders as a possible US military strike against Syria uld push the price of oil up and hurt the world economy.
Posted on: Sun, 08 Sep 2013 01:29:54 +0000
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