#tristatewx May 7, 2014: Your evening update... Changes since the last update... Increased chances for severe weather just ever so slightly on Friday (previous updates mentioned that a couple of reports of hail or high winds would be possible). Will increase the wording just a bit. Instability appears to be there for at least scattered severe thunderstorms. Will continue to monitor. A bit more confident that rain/storms will end Saturday morning - HOPING early vs late. Believe best rain/storm chances will be before 7 am on Saturday. That leaves us with a chance for a few showers/storms late Saturday morning into Saturday night. All things equal, I am hoping that most of Saturday will end up dry vs wet. I know many of you have outdoor activities. I lowered precipitation chances for the morning hours (sunrise onward). Sunday continues to look mostly dry. The atmosphere could produce at least a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. I cant leave the chance out of the forecast. I do think most areas will remain dry. Thunderstorm chances increase late on Monday into Tuesday morning (next front moves through). Those with outdoor plans on Saturday and Sunday should not cancel them. However, I continue to encourage you to at least have a backup plan. Better safe than sorry. Rainfall totals on Thursday night into Friday night/Saturday morning should be in the 1-2 range. Then another round on Monday night/Tuesday in the 0.75-1.25 range. Total rainfall over the coming seven day period will likely be in the 1-3 range. Locally heavier amounts will be possible (like always in the spring and summer months). Details of the updated forecast... Tonight - Some high clouds from time to time. Otherwise, a lot of stars. Nice pre-summer evening to sit out on the deck and enjoy the sunset. Might even see a few fireflies. Check out the moon during the evening hours and Jupiter shining brightly to the right. It will be mild for early May. Lows in the middle 60s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Thursday - Some increase of clouds. It will be warm and windy with well above normal temperatures. Highs will be in the middle 80s. Southerly winds will blow at speeds of 10-20 mph. Gusty at times. Boaters use care - choppy waters. Thursday night - Showers and thunderstorms becoming likely late at night. A few thunderstorms will produce locally heavy rain. Overnight lows will be in the 60s with southerly winds at 15 mph. Friday - Periods of showers and thunderstorms. A few heavy downpours likely. Lightning will be a concern for outdoor events. A couple of storms could produce hail and strong winds. Tornado risk appears minimal - not zero - but minimal. It wont be quite as warm. Highs will be in the 70s. South/southwest winds of 10-20 mph. Winds will be stronger near thunderstorms with gusts above 40 mph possible. Friday night - Periods of showers and thunderstorms - a few heavy downpours possible (especially early in the night). Precipitation becoming more scattered late at night (after midnight). Overnight lows in the 60s. South/southwest winds of 10-15 mph. Gusty near thunderstorms. Lightning is a concern for any outdoor events. Saturday - A few morning showers and thunderstorms (mainly before 5 am). Then a small chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Rain chances around 40% during the morning and 30% late morning into the afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s. South/southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Saturday night and Sunday - Partly cloudy. A chance (10%-20%) for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s and highs in the 70s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. A second round of widespread showers/thunderstorms should arrive with a cold front on Monday night and Tuesday.
Posted on: Wed, 07 May 2014 22:56:51 +0000
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