عاااجل اين الحكومة من هالتحذيرات الجوية .. ((الموقع الاوروبي يستمر في وضع تحذير على مناطق واسعة من المغرب العربي لهذه الليلية و صبيحة الغد و التحذير يشمل ليبيا ايضا )) Northern Algeria, Tunisia At the southern flank of the Mediterranean trough, a strong westerly flow affects northern Africa. However, the diurnally driven thermal low across the Atlas mountains will allow for northerly to north-easterly surface flow during the afternoon hours. Upslope flow and rich Mediterranean moisture will increase the chance of thunderstorms as steep mid-level lapse rates are expected. CAPE in the order of 1000 J/kg is expected over the area in the evening hours. Main uncertainty is if the cap will break. Weak forcing is expected in the wake of the main trough axis that moves into Tunisia in the morning hours. Current thinking is that storms will go on across Tunisia in the morning hours and weaken until noon. With strong vertical wind shear, a few supercells may be possible capable of producing large hail. In the wake of the precipitation, insolation will result in increasing instability across northern Algeria. Initiation is forecast to be most likely over the mountains. Every storm that develops may become a supercell in the strongly sheared environment, and large or very large hail is not ruled out as well as a severe downburst. The main limiting factor will be the weak forcing over most places, and storms are expected to decay rather quickly. Therefore, a level 1 threat is issued despite the good overlap of instability and vertical wind shear
Posted on: Thu, 05 Sep 2013 22:21:40 +0000
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