1/27/14 Closing Markets Corn March closed up 2.25 at 431.75. The 435.5 high of the Monday after the report would look to be in sight. In the 1st half of the market year over the last 3 years we have consumed 58.5% of the crop. Additionally, we entered this year with very low stocks which likely needs to be refilled. We are seeing an increase in export demand with US panamax vessels now cheaper than Black Sea origin delivered to Europe. And Egypt is actively buying US corn as Black Sea corn foreign material is running high. Most end users have Feb needs covered, but not much beyond that. Beans Soybeans trading in choppy fashion on Monday.. The front end driver of the futures market was most likely export shipments for the week. The US shipped 73.8 mbu, Vs. 50-58 mbu of expectations. Last week the US shipped 56.6 mbu. Main destination was China (46 mbu). This week’s export number comes in about 6th in terms of the largest week, BUT, it is the largest amount shipped in one week for this time of year. Ultra-cold temperatures keeping beans in the bin, and Argentina about a month away from beginning harvest. It will remain to be seen whether the Argentine producer sells beans across the scale or not, given the currency crisis there. Advance Trading Research now speculating the US carryover at 115 mbu, vs USDA at 150 mbu. Every sales bushel that gets announced from here forward is already adding on to a total that is larger than the USDA number. Some big questions that the market is looking for answer to are; 1) when and how much will the Chinese cancel? 2) Has Brazil sped up their loading? 3) will the Argentine producer be a seller across the scale? Wheat Wheat futures tried to rally on the cold temperatures and winter kill worries, but market bears were focused on the world export competition and increasing supplies which pressured futures lower into the close. Saudi Arabian purchase of 715K wheat included 595K tonnes of hard wheat, which was originally thought to be sourced from some North American origin points, but trade started to debate that assumption as the day progressed. Weekly export inspections of 14.0 mbu were at the low end of expectations and 4 mbu less than BOY requirements. Cold temperatures also stretching across Ukraine, though snow cover is reportedly sufficient to prevent much damage. Egypt announced a tender after the close for a cargo of wheat from the usual suppliers
Posted on: Tue, 28 Jan 2014 13:51:44 +0000
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