129 FXUS63 KSGF 201712 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1212 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 230 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014 High pressure overhead was beginning to slide to the east overnight and winds are beginning to veer around to the south- southwest. The main focus for today will be with fire weather conditions with increasing south to southwest winds and afternoon humidity levels dropping into the 20 to 25 percent range. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight) Issued at 230 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014 An upper level wave will be pushing east across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains today which will help to develop surface low pressure in the high Plains. With a departing surface high and developing low pressure to the west, surface winds will increase into the 15 to 25 mph range by late morning into the afternoon hours over west central Missouri into extreme southeast Kansas. A dry air mass is already in place over the area with RH values not recovering much so far tonight and will drop in the 20 to 25 percent range over a large portion of the CWA today. The combined low humidities with increased winds will put west central Missouri and extreme southeast Kansas into Red Flag warning criteria from 18z-00z and will be issuing a Red Flag warning for those areas this morning. With RH values expected to be low everywhere, elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the remainder of the CWA and will issue an Special Weather Statement for the rest of the CWA. Winds will diminish this evening and RH values will begin to rise so we will have the RFW end by 00z. The cold front will approach from the west tonight but should remain west of the area by 12z Friday. No precipitation is expected through tonight. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 230 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014 Given the intial dry nature of the air mass ahead of the front, am not expecting much in the way of precipitation with the fropa, especially in the northwest 1/3 to 1/2 of the CWA. Do have low pops for late Friday into Friday night over the south as a little bit more moisture may by that time work northward into the area. The front should push through the area Friday night. Models are in some disagreement with precipitation chances on Saturday into Saturday night. The NAM is really bullish in developing a wave along the front and precipitation chances extending pretty far north with the ECMWF keeping just about all the QPF to the south and the GFS in the middle ground. Have bumped up pops slightly along with QPF amounts as the trend has been shifting this to the north slightly. A more amplified upper pattern will set up by the end of the weekend as an upper level ridge axis shift east into the west coast. This will allow an upper level wave to drop southeast into the area Monday into Tuesday along with another cold air mass. This looks to be short-lived however as a storm system entering the west coast will push the ridge east and break it down by middle to later part of next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1205 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014 High Pressure ridging from Eastern Arkansas to Central Tennessee will drift southeastward to South Carolina by mid day Friday. This pattern will keep Southwestern Missouri Airfields in a warm...dry...moderate southwesterly flow with VFR conditions prevailing for the duration of the TAF forecast period. Included low level wind shear in the forecast for all three locations due to strengthening low level southwesterly jet later tonight and early on Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 230 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2014 Will be issuing a red flag warning this morning for parts of west central Missouri into extreme southeast Kansas. A dry air mass is already in place and humidity levels are expected to drop into the 20 to 25 percent range this afternoon. Winds will start to become gusty over extreme southeast Kansas into west central Missouri this afternoon and will produce elevated to significant fire weather hazards this afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-067-077- 078-088. KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Colucci FIRE WEATHER...Lindenberg
Posted on: Thu, 20 Mar 2014 17:46:57 +0000
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