2014 NCAA Tournament – Leave Emotion at the Door The field of 68 is set for this year’s 2014 NCAA Tournament. The amount of information is already staggering and it will only continue to mount in the coming days. Let’s try and filter some of this out and be as cold and James Spader on the TV show “The Blacklist”. Let’s stop the whining and understand picking the field is not a science SMU got hosed and should have been in the field, completely agree. N.C. State beat Syracuse which presumably is why they made the field, but that is not breaking news the past month. If the NCAA committee publicly came out and said they were going to monitor the Joel Embiid situation in determining where to seed Kansas, why didn’t they do the same with BYU, who lost their second-leading scorer Kyle Collinsworth in the West Coast Conference tournament to a knee injury. There could be no way BYU was lowered to a 10th seed, it was just an oversight by the committee. Ultimately, none of this will matter and four teams will win four games to reach the Final 4 and one squad will win six. Louisville’s and Michigan State’s Seeding While all the talking heads were complaining about Louisville and Michigan State passing the eye-test and should have been seated higher, let’s look a little closer. The Cardinals are doing what they always do this time of year, win. That is because of Rick Pitino, but let’s not lose sight of the fact this team lost twice to Memphis, split with Cincinnati (failed to cover either) and the AAC was justifiably considered an inferior league to the Big East of last year. Should the Cardinals have been seeded higher, sure, but no more than a No. 3. Michigan State proved earlier in the year season they were one of the best four teams in college basketball but a barrage of injuries kept them from reaching their true potential. If you watched ESPN last night, all the experts were on the Spartans to win the national championships. Their reasons were varied but for the most part they looked to be healthy for the first time collectively and the talent and coaching are in place. But to complain about the Spartans seeding is ridiculous, since they did lose eight times and while not having a complete team most of the season contributed to their losses, one can only speculate about “what if” on Michigan State and instead has to use the facts. While winning the Big Ten tourney was a notable achievement and might set the table for run for Sparty, they faced Northwestern after they upset Iowa, defeated Wisconsin, something they almost always do and were playing into double revenge with the hated Wolverines. The seeding are what they are and just keep in mind no team seeded lower than third has won the title since Arizona in 1998. Listen to Jimmy to Pick a Tournament Champion Several years ago ESPN’s Jimmy Dykes trotted out a list of criteria backed with support as to how to choose a NCAA basketball champion. I lost track of the exact numbers over the years, but suffice to say they elements have been correct 75% of the time over the past 25 years. *Next Level Talent Matters* Dykes noted you have to have a point guard that can play in the NBA. Each year we here about the importance of guard play in the tourney and that remains true. Try and find a champion that did not have at least on exceptional guard. The same holds true in the frontcourt, where one player has to be at least 6’8 with NBA ability. Again this does not mean they turn out to be stars at the next level, rather they can score in the paint and defend near the rim. *Conference Tournament Champs* Of the four elements, this is the least important, but it proves a team can focus over a short period of time and win by effort and execution even when tired. This goes towards the element of mental toughness and being a winner. *10 or more Game Winning Streak* Why this important is the fact you have to win six games to cut down the nets and if a team is unfamiliar with the feeling of building on victories, their chances of success diminish. Every year is different, but it helps to know the past Here is a fresher from last year’s tourney and something we will be following again. Favorites are 45-20 and 32-33 ATS The higher seeds are 41-20 and 31-30 ATS Favorites of 7.5-points or more are 20-3 SU and 10-13 ATS Favorites of 3.5 to 7-points are 14-12 SU and 11-14-1 ATS Favorites of 3-points or less are 7-5 SU and 7-5 ATS All Totals are 33-31-1 OVER Totals of 125 or less are 5-1 OVER Totals of 140 or more are 8-6 UNDER Research and Luck is Key to Beating the Oddsmakers There are a number of sites to review, but some of the best I have found are these for acquiring data to help beat the sportsbooks, especially in the first few rounds. • Kenpom • Bracketscience • TeamRankings • StatFox ESPN has a number of good tools also and if you have others you like let me know.
Posted on: Mon, 17 Mar 2014 18:21:40 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015