2015 JAN 17 03gmt: Western North Pacific: 730 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES: TC 01W-MEKKHALA Warning 15/JTWC: WDPN31 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 15// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 01W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT CONTINUED TO DEEPEN, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY, AND OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND FROM A RING FEATURE ON A 162156Z 89 GHZ GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION RESULTING IN OVERALL LOW VWS WHILE A ROBUST DIVERGENT OUTFLOW PERSISTS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY MEKKHALA WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN SAMAR BY TAU 12 THEN DRAG ACROSS THE VISAYAN ISLANDS BEFORE EXITING INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BY TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ERODE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING VWS, AND EVENTUAL EXPOSURE TO THE RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SCS. TY MEKKHALA WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER BY TAU 72. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD, LENDING AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN JMV File/JTWC: 0115011006 34N1538E 15 0115011012 38N1533E 15 0115011018 42N1529E 15 0115011100 49N1522E 15 0115011106 56N1514E 15 0115011112 64N1503E 20 0115011118 72N1490E 20 0115011200 80N1476E 20 0115011206 87N1461E 20 0115011212 89N1446E 20 0115011218 88N1433E 20 0115011300 88N1427E 20 0115011306 87N1423E 20 0115011312 89N1418E 25 0115011318 94N1408E 25 0115011400 101N1399E 30 0115011406 104N1385E 30 0115011412 110N1372E 30 0115011418 113N1358E 30 0115011500 117N1344E 35 0115011506 117N1335E 35 0115011512 116N1327E 35 0115011518 116N1319E 35 0115011600 116N1311E 40 0115011606 114N1297E 40 0115011612 113N1283E 50 0115011618 113N1275E 65 0115011700 113N1268E 70 NNNN Cheers, PH.
Posted on: Sat, 17 Jan 2015 03:24:25 +0000
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