3:16 PM Update: Tornado Watch in effect just to our west for eastern TN. The storms I mentioned in my earlier update continue to train northeastward into SW Virginia and extreme southeastern KY. One of these storms produced a possible tornado near I-40 and Crossville TN around the time of my 1:48 update. Otherwise, the wedge front hasnt moved much. There are signs that it is becoming shallower, evidenced by the sun and warmer temperatures over the counties but easterly winds still prevail. Some thunderstorms could develop along this front to our southeast near and east of Charlotte but upper level winds will sweep them eastward and away from us. No likely threat there. Actually a strong thunderstorm has just developed in the sandhills near Rockingham NC, moving northeastward and other pop up showers could also fire into storms along the front to our east. Short term, activity for us could come from northeast Georgia. A layer of slightly drier air aloft will mix with the more humid air at the surface, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms that could move into the counties in the next several hours. Brief heavy rain and cloud-to-ground lightning are possible and I cant rule out a severe storm or two but the main threat still hinges on the progress of that area of thunderstorms over eastern Tennessee. Right now the strongest storms are moving away from us but more storms are developing south of I-40 about 30 miles west of Knoxville. This is the area that poses the greatest threat to us, probably after midnight and maybe closer to daybreak Tuesday. By then the severe weather dynamics are expected to become more conducive for severe weather and, at a minimum, this area of storms poses a damaging wind threat with hail and a tornado or two possible. The timing is the biggest problem with this thunderstorm complex because of when it is likely to affect us (very early in the morning). Please stay tuned to updates and make sure your weather radios are in working order.--Steve.
Posted on: Mon, 28 Apr 2014 19:27:10 +0000
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