...49% chose more powers. It’s well understood that including more options in a survey question is likely to decrease the % opting for any given choice – the options compete against each other. For example, it seems likely that if the independence option were removed from the BBC survey, most of the 3% would transfer to the more powers option, and the headline result would have been “majority in favour of more powers”. The poll probably also reflects the way people think about the issue as one which evolves over time. Wales is very far from being an independent country (it has considerably less autonomy than, say, American states or German länder) and it’s hard to imagine it becoming independent without several further steps of devolution/federalism happening first. I suspect many of the people answering “more powers” in the BBC poll would have chosen independence in the ITV poll, and the difference may indicate a reasonable preference for gradual change. Indeed, this suggests that the ITV poll, asking as it does about a referendum “tomorrow”, might actually underestimate support for independence.
Posted on: Sun, 28 Sep 2014 06:17:23 +0000
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