500 PM HST MON AUG 19 2013 DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THREE-C HAS BEEN PULSING DURING THE DAY WITH THE LATEST BURST OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CENTER. UNFORTUNATELY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES CAME IN AT 25 TO 30 KT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. LIKE OTHER RECENT CENTRAL PACIFIC SYSTEMS...PEWA AND UNALA... THREE-C IS RATHER SMALL. IT IS ALSO THE EASTERNMOST CYCLONE WITHIN A PERSISTENT LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT PROPAGATED INTO THE AREA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THREE-C IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH PUTS IT WITHIN HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES AND SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR. THE 0000 UTC CIMSS ANALYSIS SHOWED 20 TO 30 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE WEST. THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN AT LEAST 15 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND MAY BE THE MAIN REASON WHY THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS MAINTAIN THREE-C NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS. GIVEN NO DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT IN THE SYSTEM/S ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE OBJECTIVE AIDS...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS LARGELY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND PROJECTS WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AT AROUND 36 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.8N 176.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.2N 178.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 19.8N 179.1E 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 20.6N 176.4E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KODAMA MC
Posted on: Tue, 20 Aug 2013 02:30:47 +0000
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