ABNT20 KNHC 070531 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT SAT SEP 7 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED WELL INLAND WEST OF TAMPICO MEXICO. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT IN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC. && FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT... HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO $$ FORECASTER AVILA WWWW
Posted on: Sat, 07 Sep 2013 05:33:03 +0000
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