***ALERT *** MAJOR SNOWSTORM for NE US APRIL 15-16 ** short answer.. NOT for any of the I-95 CITIES but for western MD as well as the mountains of WVA ... central and western pa and NY ... for those areas this could be a good amount of amount sniow yes the usual super weenie weather sites and teenage boys playing Jim cantore on their FB pages are at it again. Already the rumors and excitement are already flying and leading the charge is fraud WEATHER BOY WEATHER (him again ) but there are some notable other FB pages playing up the 8 or 9 day threat as a major snowstorm possibility --even for the I-95 Big cities. The great thing about when you are WEENIE is that things like science and fact and reality really dont seem to matter. I think that will probably end up doing a video about this event tomorrow but there are few things and we can keep in mind. LATENESS OF THE SEASON. Yes back on April 6, 1982 there was a historic late season snowstorm/ blizzard in the northeast U.S. that dropped over foot of snow with bitter cold high winds and postponed opening day for many teams in the northeast and the Middle Atlantic states. But because the increasing power of the sun there is a HUGE big difference between APRIL 6 and APRIL 17. SECOND in the APRIL 6 historic snowstorm there was already a seasonally cold ... below normal temps in place over the northeast when the storm started to develop. With regard to this possible event around APRIL 16.. thee will be strong SOUTH winds ahead of the strong cold front will send temperatures soaring even into northern of England and Maine... BBefore any the precipitation actually begins. AGAIN it is a lot easier to get the low levels of the atmosphere to drop from 45° to 31°.... then it is to geat 60-65 Degrees to 30 degrees. THIRD .. SEASONAL trend. So far this winter we have seen numerous cases of th the European model at day 7... day 8 day 8 day 10 show what appear to be major East Coast winter storms... Only to have them fall apart significantly by the time we reach day 3...4.. and 5. FOURTH the actual low level temperatures at the surface ... at 925 and at 850 mb (1 mile up) on the European model do not support a major snow event over the big cities of the Middle Atlantic and New England on APRIL 16-17. The actual graphics of the snow accumulations on some of the European models look rather impressive but the data itself of the model does not support that sort of snow accumulation at all. FIFTH the nature of the event. This is going to be a slow moving a massive cold front which will develop as the huge trough forms over the Mississippi Valley and slides slowly but steadily eastward APRIL 12-13-14. THEN the front stalls along the East Coast and somewhere between the coast and the Appalachian Mts.. THEN a 2nd Low pressure develops over or just off the eastern NC. THEN... this Low then has to stay close enough to the coast and intensify so that and that pulls the cold air from the mountains into a coastal areas . Thus the rain in the big cities changes over to snow and the snow becomes heavy Inland areas and over the Piedmont/ eastern mtns . This is a extremely odd and difficult scenario to get a Big east snowstorm. The only event that I can think about which matches something like this would be the MARCH 18888 blizzard. But again let me point out to you that this is going to be more than a month after the Mid March blizzard of 1888. SIXTH ... The overall upper air pattern. The arctic oscillation will be extremely positive... the NAO is extremely positive... and there is no 50/50 Low in place over southeastern Canada before the event begins. On top of that we ...have strong if not howling south west winds. .. bringing up a very warm air in the days before the cold front actually arrives. In addition the model data even on the European clearly shows a fast moving piece of energy over Texas and Oklahoma tracking due east. This should ensure that any coastal LOW that might develop on the stalled cold front on April 16... would get rapidly kicked off the coast.
Posted on: Tue, 08 Apr 2014 21:29:40 +0000
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