ANALYSIS-Geneva 2 farce -------------- Upon reflection, everything makes now much more sense starting with this whole victory over Iran when the SNC forced it not to attend Geneva. I always felt this was too easy to be true. Why would the Geneva happen in the first place If Iranians werent on mutual understanding with the US over this under the table? It doesnt go with the US-Iran public alliance now and with the fact that Iran is actually the real player controlling all the articulations of the regime , militarily, economically and security wise, so I had the feeling that there was something seriously wrong with this Jarbean swift victory when he gave a 6h ultimatum (!!) to Ban Ke Mon who supposedly shit in his pants and was so afraid that he directly went to threaten the Iranians and then kicked them out of Geneva 2! Of course, in real politics it is the actual sheer power of the parties involved which make the decisions and not a bureaucrat who gets paid (and ordered) by US like Ban or even an employee who has to respond to his masters wishes ( KSA or Qatar now) about everything he does. all the while both Qatar and KSA themselves are under US tutelage over everything (SURELY QATAR ). In the end everyone has the US on top of him and they cant force Iran not to go to Geneva because of this UNACCEPTABLE PARADOX: US is supposedly angry with Iran about its Syria position, while this same US is happy with Iran over the latters position about Syria that it ALLOWS it to kill Syrian citizens publicly forthree years. . And of course, Jarba and Ban cannot possibly decide things out of their leagues such as kicking Iran out of Geneva 2. In truth, It was all very subtly calculated and planned: 1- The US and Iran -definitely with the approval and complicit coordination of Iran- transformed Jarba and SNC into uncompromising figures, by playing the farce of we cant accept Geneva 1 it is a matter of dignity and Jarba is suddenly transformed into someone who would rather kill the Iranian enemy in his own bare hands rather than accept them in Geneva. This is the farce we are supposed to believe after we swallow that Iran was kicked out by Jarba and co. Result: Now everyone trusts SNC blindly on whatever they do as they SOOOO uncompromising! And REALLY REVOLUTIONARY. 2.Anything SNC and Jarba does now must be right and seen as a victory[a doxa invented for Syrian elites] (such as the shameful deal about Homs which surprised everybody.) so now it is almost impossible to think that they have been actually selling out the revolution but perhaps doing a mistake because they seem to be so worried about humanitarian issues and if they make mistakes well ... mortals do make...they are only mistakes at the end of the days. Not very serious thing to stop at. In this line of thought, we are lead NOT to believe that it was ALL orchestrated from the beginning for them (and all of us) to reach this point. 3-Al Jaafari and Al Muallem and ibrahimi probably knew about this since the very beginning and I bet the whole circus of Muallem over-extending his time in the speech was also part of the farce: the result was that the SNC kept saying: AL Muallem made a BIG MISTAKE and he made the Russians sooo angry. In fact the aim was to present such prepared numeros by the regime delegation as a VICTORY for the SNC (who have nothing to give to their people in terms of TANGIBLE political gain) so when they have later to present tangible political losses as victories- and in reality falling in the prepared mistakes- one needs first to give them a respectable capital such as only victors can have, so you need to give them victories even if those were necessarily empty victories. 4- MAYBE ( BUT I AM NOT SURE ANYMORE) there is a good chance the Coalition people didnt know about the whole deal [ Actually I never doubt their good intentions] and were led by their nose into all this [and even if some of them know now it is too late they cant seem to go back on their words. They were so mute today after this Homs shock. They probably realize they made a mistake but they cant say it now but the result is that perhaps the regime will say if they dont hand in women and children that Look they are using civilians as human shields! It would have been better not to have gone to Geneva when one thinks of all this but they cant go back on what they did.] The possibility that they didnt know joins what theWSJ article mentions here online.wsj/news/articles/SB10001424052702304007504579344800809342492 which says that it was all an Ibrahimi-Jaafari deal. And this is what Ahmad Ramadan put on his fb page The coalition delegation raised the issue of breaking the siege of all the besieged areas , beginning with the the old city of Homs.... Delegation of the regime refused to order it , but returned and agreed after pressure suffered from state sponsors .[Ramadan meant Russia]. Also Galyun was so focused on his Homs thing. Clearly the Homs geography touches a weak nerve of since he is from there. https://soundcloud/watanfm/bor... So all those elites together in their meeting with Ibrahimi were probably set-up into a trap by Ibrahimi, US, Qatar, Iran and UN prepared from the very beginning...(Also I wonder what is the role of the KSA businessman, the main negotiator of delegation who was pulled out of the hat at last moment in all this)/ Also one needs to mention the theatrical moves of Ibrahimi who was so angry (hehe) at the delegation of Asad [SNC cheerers couldnt stop talking about it] and who was so appreciative of the coalition delegation that he was so mad at Jaafari and shut him up! I bet on my life it was all prepared and agreed upon under the table. ON MY LIFE. The frenzy of these victories clearly made the coalition delegation so sure of themselves and so blind to what is actually going on around them They even missed that Ibrahimi has always been a pro-Iranian puppet! But NO now he is NEUTRAL! and whether it was an Iranian-Ibrahimi exclusive deal I cannot really have definite answers about whether someone of the coalition knew about all this because I just cant have the inside info so this is where the limit of my analysis goes. 5- The timing of release of pics of torture completed the farce. The US knew about this since November and released this with the help of the Qataris. [Maybe even the Iranians were part of leak?]. It is also part of the empty victory given to SNC delegation before Geneva 2 cashing really started.This provided an ambiance for the pleasing thoughts that Asad will inevitably be held accountable and the feeling that US wouldnt have allowed it of they didnt really aim for that. An auster belief that History was flowing in the right direction. In fact, all this doesnt matter anymore. The real aim realized is that the (FALSE) FEELING of victory is created and believed by the cheerers of SNC now. And this is so dangerous. 6- The whole aim is to make syrians swallow the poison of getting rid of Asad the person only as the ultimate aim (If US and Iranians and Russians would need to do this one day) through the the whole transitional government, this will be the HIGHEST POSSIBLE POLITICAL DREAM that the SNC will have to sell FSA of and the rest of the masses. This way they start to decrease our expectations slowly.. And when you have this as the highest political aim then everything below this becomes a victoryi.e. humanitarian corridors, killing 300 instead of 500 per day, etc... 7-Conclusions: In these type of higher politics, and in the particular case of the Syrian revolution where I insist as I have been saying since the 15 March 2011 US WANTS Asad to stay- I still think think so and not only Iran and Russia. I think also that the list of events confirm this diagnosis. If they have to sacrifice Asad it will be Asad the person and they will keep the regime itself the whole security-complex. [But I still think that Asad is on their keeping list for now]. Also the belief that Asad the person concentrated the whole regime doesnt seem logical anymore because the Iranians are the real ones who are controlling the game now.... Finally: Higher politics of this kind contains so much of IRRATIONALITY and so much MANIPULATION of Irrationality :when you have such huge players and enemies one has to be so careful all the time because what is happening over Syria is one of the worst game of mirrors in terms of politics I have ever seen or read or lived through. my two cents end of analysis thank you
Posted on: Mon, 27 Jan 2014 19:52:37 +0000
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