AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1117 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD KAMA. STILL PRETTY LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY/LL REACH THE TERMINAL BEFORE DISSIPATING...AND EVEN IF THEY DO...IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THESE DIRECTLY IMPACTING A TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. NOTE TO USERS OF SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM RICK HUSBAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT KAMA...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM WITH DATA LINE HAS PREVENTED LONG-LINE DISSEMINATION OF SURFACE OBS. DATA COLLECTION PLATFORM AT KAMA ASOS IS FUNCTIONING PROPERLY WITH CONTINUOUS MONITORING OF ALL ELEMENTS BY AMARILLO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST STAFF. KB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013/ UPDATE... SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. EXPANDED THE POPS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ROUND OF CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. INTRODUCED THE 10 POP RULE OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. DID NOTICE A LONE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LAST NIGHT AROUND 09Z SUNDAY OR SO...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A SIMILAR SCENARIO ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN OR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO HELP ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ADJUSTED WIND AND SKY GRIDS TONIGHT...AND ALSO POPULATED THE SMOKE MANAGEMENT GRIDS WITH THE LATEST NAM DATA AND UPDATED THE LAL AND 20 FOOT WIND GRIDS. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GRIDS. ALL PUBLIC AND FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND SENT. SCHNEIDER PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013/ DISCUSSION... JUST ONE MORE DAY OF THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THAT THE REGION HAS BEEN UNDER FOR OVER A WEEK NOW. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...PRECIP CHANCES...THOUGH MENTIONABLE...CONTINUE TO DECLINE AS DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOW 0.79 INCHES...WHICH IS 92 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT A FAR CRY FROM THE 1 PLUS INCH VALUES WE/VE SEEN LATELY. IN ADDITION...IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE IS SOME UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF STORMS VERY LIMITED. HOWEVER...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RAP HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SHOWS MORE COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY. IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP EITHER THIS AFTERNOON OR TOMORROW...THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DRY AND HYBRID DOWNBURSTS LEADING TO STRONG WINDS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS PERIOD BRINGING A DRY AND HOT WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK. STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL FAVORING HIGHER MAX TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES...WHICH HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE RAIN...WHILE KEEPING THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE A FEW DEGREES LOWER DUE TO THE WET SOIL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THESE DIFFERENCES MAY BE NEGLIGIBLE AS THE SOILS DRY. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHOWING A PERSISTENT RIDGE CONTINUING THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT WHICH WAS SHOWN IN THE GFS TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED IN THE 12Z RUN. THUS...STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. JOHNSON FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE BELOW 15 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20 MPH...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH RESULTED IN LIGHTER WINDS TODAY WILL BE A FACTOR TOMORROW AS WELL. THOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AS WE SEE A DRIER PATTERN...NO ADDITIONAL ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. JOHNSON && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 08/11
Posted on: Mon, 24 Jun 2013 05:39:38 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015