AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1048 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 .DISCUSSION... AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW. && .AVIATION... HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TAFS THROUGH 20Z...THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE AFTERWARDS. STRONG WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERNS. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD FRONT REACHING KOKC...KLAW...KSPS 07-08Z. GUSTS OVER 40 KT ARE PROBABLE. AN AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR KOKC 07-21Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 18Z...THEN WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY 00-01Z. GENERALLY THINK MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z...THEN BECOME VFR WEST TO EAST 16-21Z. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KWWR AND KGAG THROUGH 09Z...BUT DO NOT PLAN ON MENTIONING DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. -SHRA/-RA WILL AFFECT KAVK-KCSM-KSPS AND POINTS EAST THROUGH 15Z...THUS KEPT -RA/-SHRA/VCSH MENTION. CHANCES FOR TS REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION. -IP/-SN MAY MIX WITH -RA NEAR KOKC...KOUN...AND KPNC 09-15Z BEFORE ENDING...BUT WILL NOT MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. MBS && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/ UPDATE... MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THIS EVENING. MOD/HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. AS A STRONG FRONT SURGES INTO OKLAHOMA...EXPECT SCT TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS INTO CENTRAL OK OVERNIGHT. OTHER THAN A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO HRLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THROUGH TOMORROW. STILL A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A RAIN/SNOW/SLEET MIX FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOMORROW AM...NO ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR HOWEVER...AS SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. /ISSUED 350 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014/ DISCUSSION... MOIST CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT VORT MAX TRAVERSES WESTERN NORTH TX. A COUPLE OF STORMS OVER WESTERN NORTH TX AND ALONG THE RED RIVER PRODUCED SOME HAIL EARLIER. A REPORT FROM ARCHER COUNTY INDICATED THERE WAS A LOT OF IT..BUT SMALL. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN LOW/SKINNY CAPE PROFILES...MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX APPROACHES LAPS RATES WILL STEEPEN A BIT INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGER HAIL. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE OVER THE TEXAS COUNTIES. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARCHER AND CLAY COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OK UNTIL 10 PM. IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO POSE A PROBLEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OK THROUGH TONIGHT. PONTOTOC COUNTY IS A FINE EXAMPLE...WHERE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ON THE WAY. LATER TONIGHT AS THE VORT MAX MOVES INTO SE OK...A FAIRLY STOUT COLD FRONT WILL DIVE SOUTH. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OK...AND A 925MB POST FRONTAL JET AROUND 40 TO 50 KT IS EXPECTED NEAR THE I35 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COUPLE OF ISOLATED HIGH WIND OBS DURING THIS TIME...BUT FELT LIKE A HIGH WIND WARNING WAS NOT NEEDED FOR THE MOMENT. PLACES LIKE THE WICHITA MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SOME BRIEF HIGH WINDS. THIS WILL BE PASSED ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT. ALSO...AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OK SOME SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AFTER SUNRISE. DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS SO NO NEED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY. UNSEASONABLY COLD HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS ALONG A SFC RIDGE...WILL ALSO RESULT IN COLD MORNING LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. A WARMUP IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUES AS SOUTH WINDS AT THE SFC RETURN THANKS TO A SFC LOW ACCOMPANYING A MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING...AND HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CAA OCCURS BEFORE SUNSET. AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN WED BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM AGAIN THROUGH LATE NEXT IN THE WEEK BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY FRI NIGHT.
Posted on: Sun, 16 Mar 2014 04:12:24 +0000
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