AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TN AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372... VALID 270156Z - 270330Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 372 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...WITH A STRONG/SEVERE MCS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF KY INTO TN THROUGH LATE EVENING...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH AND/OR AN EXTENSION OF WATCH 372 ACROSS KY /SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE 03Z/ MAY BE NEEDED BEFORE 03Z/10 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...FOCUSED ALONG PRIOR OUTFLOW...UPSCALE MCS GROWTH HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE OH RIVER NEAR THE INDIANA-KY BORDER...WITH SOME FORWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION EVIDENT OVER THE PAST HOUR. MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE/LESS EXTENSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION /INCLUDING A SOUTHWEST FLANK SUPERCELL/ CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE OH RIVER NEAR THE IL/KY BORDER AND TOWARD THE CAPE GIRARDEAU/PADUCAH AREAS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE THESE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KY INTO TN REMAINS WARM/MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE...WITH THE 00Z NASHVILLE OBSERVED SOUNDING SAMPLING AROUND 1900 J/KG OF MLCAPE. CONTINUED SOUTHEASTWARD PERSISTENCE OF THESE POTENTIALLY CONSOLIDATING CLUSTERS WILL BE AIDED BY A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AND/OR REAR INFLOW...WITH 35-40 KT BETWEEN 3-6 KM NOW EVIDENT IN WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM PADUCAH/EVANSVILLE. GIVEN THIS BACKGROUND FLOW AND EXISTING QUASI-LINEAR ORGANIZATION...WIND DAMAGE/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE 03Z TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING MAY BEGIN TO TEMPER THE WIND DAMAGE LIKELIHOOD INTO LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. EVEN SO...AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE TSTM WATCH AND/OR TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF WW 372 MAY BE NEEDED. ..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 06/27/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35298857 36328864 37068778 37228538 36208416 35308499 35138707 35298857
Posted on: Thu, 27 Jun 2013 01:56:52 +0000
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