Analysis Prime Minister Nawaz: Between the devil and the deep blue sea? By Dr. Moeed Pirzada Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been caught between the devil and the deep blue sea – a political nutcracker mostly of his own making. On 11th May, one lever was held by Imran Khan who stood, amidst thunderous applause, at Islamabad’s D-chowk demanding: reform of the electoral system, thumb verification in four constituencies to begin with, investigations of election riggings and did mention “neutral caretakers” – almost a Freudian slip indicating the mood that is slowly building up in the political circles. At the other lever of the nutcracker was the ingenious Dr. Tahir ul Qadri, who was creating a provocative fusion of Islam, constitutionalism and technology. Though the colorful cleric was still sitting in Canada, he nevertheless managed rapt attention of significant sized crowds across 26 cities by emerging on large video screens keeping his audience enthralled by his provocative rejection of the current parliamentary system describing it as an illegitimate product of fraudulent violations of the constitution. According to him ‘democratic system’ does not even exist for it is “Void Ab Initio”. Though PMLN apparatchiks and aligned media pundits have as usual discounted the twin attack as a ‘storm in the tea cup’, in reality PM Nawaz has a challenge at hand; he needs to find a political solution; and he needs to find it fast. Both PTI’s Khan and PAT’s Qadri are capitalizing - selfishly but intelligently - on the political space created by PM Nawaz Sharif’s unending brinksmanship with his military. Situation was gradually developing but it certainly went ballistic after the bizarre political scenario in which PM Nawaz was seen aligned with a private media group against GHQ – a dramatic situation that not only exposed PMLN as politically reckless but also left it friendless in an increasingly diverse and hostile media market – thus reducing its political space and moral authority inside the system. Politicians can be blamed for being opportunistic but this is what politics is often about. Though Imran had been saying it for quiet sometime that if allegations of rigging are not addressed then “we will come on streets” but there was never a definite date for such show of street power. In general he was less rhetorical on rigging issue since ex-CJP summoned him in contempt of court. Imran also kept a low profile since the start of talks with TTP and a visit by PM Nawaz to Banigala. Similarly Dr Qadri’s second ‘home coming’, after the disappointing end of his first pre-election campaign – from that famous container - with mantras of reforming the electoral system was also in the air for the past several weeks. But there is no doubt and no possibility of denial that both agendas, irrespective of their merits and substance - have gained a sharp edge, a visible muscle and lots of energy, from the recent turn of the events. And now these agendas, though running parallel, present a rather conflicting challenge; not only to PM Nawaz but to the whole political set up including PTI. Though Imran Khan’s demands arguably are all within the boundaries of parliamentary democracy and if common sense prevails then there is no reason for these to be addressed inside a robust confident political system – especially one that understands the importance of reducing polarizations and has inbuilt dispute resolution mechanisms. But PMLN decision makers, and their supporters in media, have a complete logic of their own; this is based on two factors: One, a lingering fear that acceptance of thumb verifications even in just four constituencies – with potentially embarrassing outcome – risks undermining the overall legitimacy of party’s impressive victory in 2013 elections. This under siege mentality flows from a surprising inability to address rigging as “possible acts of individuals or candidates” rather than the PMLN as a party. Somehow PMLN apparatchiks are unable to grow out of collective guilt syndrome giving more and more ammunition to PTI and other political opponents. Second, PMLN and supporters are confident, that within the interlocking political, constitutional and judicial system put into place between 2009 and 2012, PTI and Imran Khan and the ‘naïve brigade’ can be kept wandering and salivating with increasing frustration and self-doubt, for the next four years without the sight of a solution. Supporters of the status quo know that endless arguments can be thrown in the air, as is already being done: why after one year? Elections have always been like that; protests will destabilize democracy, why not debate in the parliament? We have free judiciary; courts are there, this is GHQ agenda and so on. They calculate, and not unreasonably, that PTI – a middle class party, with professionals having day jobs – will exhaust itself after a while or will look like idiots repeating the same old slogans ready to be settled for crumbs and peanuts. But this second calculation may need to be revisited and this is where Dr. Qadri and his constitutional mumbo-jumbo starts to become important. It is true that mainstream media focuses on Imran Khan and his demands, considering Qadri’s agenda unrealistic and unachievable but if one takes into account the countless, ceaseless mutterings on social media then increasingly most young men and women have started to find Dr. Qadri more logical, clearheaded and nuanced than the thundering Khan. Many have started realizing and even arguing that Imran – though good intentioned – is naïve; no match for the crafty politics of Pakistan where a system of mutual sustainable control has been bargained between Nawaz and Zardari and put into place through constitutional amendments, judicial decisions, key placements and series of agreements. And within this framework, elections – even the next ones- may not necessarily provide any hope for real change for all those who have been kept out of the bargain. The ‘Orwellian’ influence of media narratives of ‘democratic march’ ‘free judiciary’ and great pro-democracy media and other such mumbo jumbo promoted since 2008 is fast collapsing. Next few months may see more diversity and independence, with newer voices in media and some old narratives may totally fade. This will also mean that if Khan is seen becoming soft on Nawaz, or is outmaneuvered – as many suspect - or simply put: fails to achieve any concessions for PTI crowd then the dissatisfied ranks of opposition will find Dr. Qadri more and more attractive and believable giving him greater opportunity to spread his ideas. In any case, given the events of past one year since Qadri’s last home coming, he already looks more credible and believable to most people –especially the young. And almost 65% Pakistanis fall into that later category; if they are not writing columns in mainstream English press – where narratives of status quo are energetically supported - it does not mean that they don’t exist with their fears, hopes and biases. All this is happening at a time when PM Nawaz –playing one master stroke after the other - has totally alienated his military. Had he been pitched against a few arrogant generals then he could have fired or replaced them but unfortunately he has given rise to deep disappointment and fears amongst the whole officer class. Many suspect that he continues to embark on some sort of agenda against his military on the strength of assurances by international community – which is always euphuism for Washington. Even if there is an element of truth in it, this is hardly a recipe for stable governance and solution finding. And there will always be limits to the extent ‘international community’ (read Washington) will be able to bail him out – especially if he continues with the mess. Far from becoming an Erdogan, PM Nawaz has reached the point in 10 months, where he last stood after 28 months. PM Nawaz has now no option but to strike a compromise somewhere. What remains to be seen is: will he accept Imran’s political demands to reform the electoral system or will quietly settle his differences with the restive military establishment? Participating in an Express TV special broadcast, after the jalsas of 11th May, Rana Sanaullah, Punjab’s Law Minister and PMLN’s leading voice forcefully repeated Railway minister, Khawaja Saad Rafique’s, earlier offer in the national assembly that PMLN will be willing to accept thumb verifications if PTI also agrees to allow the same exercise in four constituencies of PMLN’s choice (NA-55, 56 in Rawalpindi from where Sheikh Rashid and Imran Khan won and NA-149 and NA-150 in Multan from where Javaid Hashmi and Shah Mehmood Qureshi won). Rana argued that ever since this counter-offer PTI has been quiet. However towards the end of same broadcast, Asad Omar, PTI’s senior leader, joined explaining that PTI has given in writing in national assembly that they accept PMLN’s demand for counter verifications in four PTI constituencies; however they cannot force Sheikh Rashid (NA-55) to go for that and in lieu are prepared to offer any other seat won by Imran Khan. Asad said that in response to this Khawaja Saad Rafique then proposed, rather strangely, to make a parliamentary committee to examine the issues which looks to PTI like “backing –off” from the initial proposal since both parties need to go straight to the Election Commission for fact finding instead of wasting time with a fact finding parliamentary committee that won’t have the capacity to determine facts. Now prima facie it looks that PMLN had calculated that their counter-proposal of doing thumb verifications in four PTI won constituencies will un nerve PTI but apparently PTI has called their bluff and now PMLN is trying to wriggle out of this cul-de-sac . Political arguments in Pakistan are like peeling onions, so it remains to be seen how PMLN will now respond to this latest clarification by PTI. However now this ongoing negotiation – of offer and counter offer - assumes a new meaning given Imran Khan’s carefully worded but firm demand from the current Chief Justice that Supreme Court needs to order thumb verifications in the four constituencies and many are expecting that this time around court will find it difficult to ignore a case which is increasingly becoming more and more persuasive and is beggaring for a solution. Irrespective of what court may or may not do, emerging scenario demands PM Nawaz to show either a politics of flexibility, engagement and compromise with parliamentary opposition or with the military establishment. His best bet will be to lead his party in overcoming the phobia that rigging on few seats – even if this translates to losing 10 or 15 seats – means that an election was rigged. All over the world candidates take their chances and rig; why would this be different in Pakistan? PMLN garnered 15 million votes in the election; it needs to overcome its fears, should engage its parliamentary opposition and take this as an opportunity to reform the electoral system. This will be good for Pakistani democracy and may turn out to be PMLN’s lasting legacy. He may also need to reflect on PMLN’s media management; perhaps initiating a move to diversify his media support instead of relying exclusively upon one media group that – in search of a sixer - landed him in one isolated corner. Who knows: on his flight back from Tehran, he might have been reflecting on all this? (Dr Moeed Pirzada is a TV anchor and Group Analyst with Express News; an abridged smaller version of this piece earlier appeared in Express Tribune on 13th May, 2014)
Posted on: Wed, 14 May 2014 18:15:45 +0000
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