BREAKING WEATHER: Your evening briefing with the latest info from our BAMS computer model. This model is run each hour, so we will update often. Ill just give you some thoughts. Just above the ground surface winds will be very strong and it will be likely some of this wind will mix down to the surface. This wind does not need to be part of a storm event. Winds up to 35 MPH with gusts to 50 will be possible without any rain or lightning. The wind might be stronger during storms. This is the type of system to rapidly spin up a brief small tornado with little warning. And we think many storms will be short. Meaning some strong storms occur with tops less than 25,000 tall. Also with lower cloud tops we may not see as much hail. There is not a lot of icy air at those levels or space to work with. Our main concern would be the very strong 850 mb winds spinning up an event. Current thinking and confirmed for the last 6 model runs we should see the front around 6 pm to 9 pm ET. There will not be a lot of lift, but with 100+ MPH winds at just a few thousand feet up (850 mb), it wont take much to set some off. And finally, the sunshine and ongoing showers will have a huge effect on how strong these storms will be. On and off showers late tonight and tomorrow will greatly reduce the chance for a severe event. On the other hand, a couple or 3 hours of afternoon sunshine might cause this whole event to be much stronger. Cross your fingers for clouds. --Kerry Dean, NWA.
Posted on: Thu, 31 Oct 2013 03:21:08 +0000
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