Beat the Bookie Weekend Wrap Up Monday 9th September 2013 Another good weekend of net profit for the Top 5, but it should have been a clean sweep as an embarrassed Canberra Raiders ‘team’ were outplayed by Cronulla ‘B’ last night. The Raiders believed the rumours that the Sharks were going to tank the game and played like they didn’t care. They didn’t tackle, catch the ball or worry about playing within the rules, giving away dumb penalty after penalty, ignoring the referee’s instructions time and time again. And they still should have won the game, spurning multiple opportunities to build a lead heading into the final quarter. From there (it didn’t seem possible) the Raiders played even worse, compounding mistakes by becoming a turnstile defence. And suddenly they were 20 points behind. Off field issues are no excuse when it comes to playing for club pride in the final game of the season, at home. This rabble is arguably the worst side to ever wear the ‘green machine’ jersey. No heart and no hope. Just wait and see the shenanigans they get up to today, during their ‘mad Monday’ commiserations. With the attitude they displayed last night it will be no surprise to see at least one of them in some sort of trouble. But enough of the moaning, the Top returned 8.2 units from 6 invested, for a 36% net profit, the profit trajectory continuing its incline. A positive start to September after a poor August. Late Mail also continues to do well, profitable four out of the last five weeks, averaging 20%+ net profit during that time. Over the weekend it was ‘any other player’ as last try scorer that good us in good shape. In Saturday’s Late Mail send out we explained why it’s time to follow through on this option. With more midweek games teams are playing multiple games in short back up situations and the replacement players are able to make more of an impact late in the games against tiring defences. From Thursday through to Sunday ‘any other player’ scored the last try six games in a row. Factoring in conditions for some games this option becomes much closer to a 2 to 1 proposition than the $2.75 on offer at the TAB. It’s therefore a very good value option during games where weather is a non factor, particularly day games in sunny conditions. We picked up two last try scorer winners for Late Mail to return 5.5 units from 4 invested, a 37.5% net profit. Friday night could have started much better had Waikato not dropped the ball every five seconds. They played as poorly as they have at any stage in recent years and gifted victory to a grinding Southland team. Things picked up immediately however, as Tasman followed our script to a tee and ran Otago off the park, making a mockery of the -3.5 point start. It was a good start for the Top 5. Mad Dog predicted playoff type intensity in the contest between the Bunnies and Roosters, to decide the minor premiership. That was exactly the case as only two points separated the sides at the break, giving us a nice $4.35 return on the margin. SBW then made the difference in the second half, taking the game by the scruff of the next. The Roosters then held out the Bunnies to claim top spot. It’s a given that this year’s Premiership winner will come form the top 4, but this year’s top 4 is arguably the most even ever, with favouritism falling upon each contender during the last month after high level displays. We believe the top 4 will play each other in the preliminary finals the weekend of the 28th September, but it’s this weekend’s clashes that will determine who gets who. The lower tier of teams may provide some good contests this weekend but they are just there to make up the numbers, with only the Cowboys any chance of pulling an upset in a fortnight, if they make it that far. Hopefully you followed our lead and selected one of the top 4 to get on. At this stage we think the Bunnies are the best value of the four at $4.00, the Burgess boys the main reason for that call. Football then kept up the positive start as our World Cup qualifying selections provided two easy overs wins, both scoring totals going two goals over. The 2 unit investment returned 3.9 units, for a 95% net profit. Saturday AFL action provided an excellent contest as we got our prediction for the Cats v Dockers game slightly wrong, in our favour. The Dockers never went outside the +20.5 point start and their D suffocated the Cats to a point where they were able to push out to a solid lead in the final quarter. They held out to produce a big upset and get the Top 5 another easy win. Unfortunately that set the tone for the weekend and our other AFL selection also went under, as Richmond succumbed to Carlton. We predicted Carlton’s win last win and said that they could use that as a springboard to cause an upset against the Tigers. But we didn’t follow through and paid the price. AFL invested 3 units and lost 1.13. Then the Ranfurly Shield clash produced another classic encounter. In control for much of the contest, the Magpies seemed to lose their way in the latter stages, just as Counties discovered their self belief. Our point start selection was gone when the Steelers scored their penultimate try, but Late Mail had ‘any other player’ so we were looking good. We were looking even better when another replacement scored the winning try for Counties, in another mammoth Shield upset. Looks like it’s going to do the rounds this year, in an unprecedented season of Shield handovers. Saturday evening saw the weather beat out margin call for the All Blacks over the Pumas, although they still should have got us home. We missed out by one point. At the same time the Titans were competing well against a Melbourne team looking ahead to next week. The Titans stayed comfortably within the +18.5 point start throughout, the game finishing in golden point. The third win for the Top 5 also got home our recommended multi for a 6.2 to 1 win. About time, and we need another two in a row to put some smiles on dials around here. Sunday morning our America’s Cup prediction had some momentary speed wobbles as Team NZ made an early mistake. But their upwind speed was as good as we predicted and they wooshed past Team USA before rounding mark 3 and went on to win comprehensively, getting the Top 5 four from four. After winning the next two races Team NZ went down in the fourth race this morning. It seemed to us that Barker sat back and didn’t push the boat/crew early, expecting their upwind speed to prove the difference once more. However, they were outmanoeuvred tactically and this negated their upwind speed advantage. It will be interesting to see how aggressive he is in the early stages of first race tomorrow. At $3 Oracle is decent value to win that race, but we won’t be backing them However, at around $3 the South Africans are good value to win the Rugby Championship, especially considering the title will likely be decided in the last game in South Africa, after NZ have travelled through Argentina. We will combine the Boks with the Bunnies in a good value multi bet for a 12 to 1 return. Have a good week. Conor © Copyright Beat the Bookie 2013
Posted on: Sun, 08 Sep 2013 23:38:55 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015