Brazil soy hopes rise, but dryness dogs Argentina Hopes for Brazils soybean production - and exports – rose, with the country looking increasingly likely to set record in both, even as dry weather kept a question mark over potential in neighbouring Argentina. Oil World cautioned of a severe shortage of subsoil moisture in main soybean growing areas in Argentina, the third-ranked producer of the oilseed, despite recent rains which have refreshed north areas of Chaco, Cordoba, Entre Rios and Santa Fe. Subsoil moisture is critically low after almost three months of dryness, primarily in August and September and most of October, the influential analysis group said, estimating rain in the first 10 months of 2013 at one-third typical levels. If moisture levels are not at least partly replenished before the end of next month, this will have a detrimental impact on crops when it becomes seasonally drier again in January-February. Another record crop However, Oil World was more upbeat on prospects for Brazil, saying that weather conditions and soil moisture supplies are generally favourable as farmers approach the latter stages of the planting season. Indeed, current indications confirm expectations of another record crop being in the making, Oil World said, saying that the countrys soybean sowings would rise by at least 1.2m hectares, and that the harvest could reach 87.3m tonnes – a figure which would likely surpass that of the US for the first time. Production could turn out higher if very good weather is experienced from now on, the group said. Export hopes Indeed, the comments came hours after the US Department of Agriculture bureau in Brasilia said that the crop appeared on course to hit 88.0m tonnes, up 6.5m tonnes year on year, and a figure in line with the departments official forecast. However, on exports, the bureau was more upbeat than the USDA itself, by 2.0m tonnes, pegging volumes at 45.0m tonnes, beating the 2012-13 record and placing Brazil well ahead in the world rankings, with US soybean shipments pegged at 37.3m tonnes. The bureau gave no explanation for its estimate. But it comes amid growing ideas that Brazil may be overcoming the logistical problems which have restrained its growth as a crop exporter. It is interesting to note that Brazil soy shipments since February 1 are up 10.5m tonnes, while corn exports are up 7.8m tonnes, which suggests that Brazilian load-out capacity is not only improving but is measurably better than expected, Richard Feltes at broker RJ OBrien said. Pesky caterpillars The USDA bureau highlighted the spread of Helicoverpa, or corn earworm, the moth caterpillar which emerged as a major pest in the north east in the last harvest, as a threat to Brazil meeting its potential in soybeans. Already [growers of] some of the early-maturing soybeans in Mato Grosso are reporting the presence of the pesky Helicoverpa caterpillars, which typically attack the plants from emergence onwards, the bureau said. Farmers and agrichemical companies alike are closely monitoring the crop development and pest prevalence to tailor the proper pesticide management practices.
Posted on: Wed, 06 Nov 2013 06:37:39 +0000
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