Breaking Down What New York Knicks Must Do to Turn Season Around: What would you do if told the New York Knicks 2014-15 season wasnt a lost cause? Embrace it? Deny it? Laugh? Check your ears? Start digging to see if hell has, in fact, frozen over? Horrific though the Knicks season has been thus far, it isnt over. Mathematically, anyway. At 5-25, the Knicks are off to the worst start in franchise history, pacing themselves toward a not-so-robust 14 victories. In the Western Conference, Phil Jacksons life coach would already be helping him practice his I just won the draft lottery face. But because the Knicks play in the, um, sluggish Eastern Conference, hope is not yet lost. Ahead of their Christmas Day matchup against the second-place Washington Wizards, the Knicks are just eight games back of the final playoff spot. With 52 tilts left on the schedule, theres more than enough time for them to make up that chasm. Not to say it will, most definitely, without question, absolutely happen. Like The Wall Street Journals Chris Herring points out, the odds are still heavily against a postseason-bound turnaround: Still, in the interest of optimism—not to mention the obvious—the death knell cannot be heard ringing throughout Madison Square Garden. Not yet. The Knicks are but a turnaround away from avoiding disaster. Rotational Clarity Any about-face starts with health and continuity. The Knicks have been neither healthy nor stable to start the season. Carmelo Anthony is playing through a sore knee—the pain of which has him considering shutting it down for an undisclosed period of time, per The Records Steve Popper; J.R. Smith hasnt played since Dec. 9 while nursing a heel injury; Iman Shumpert is sidelined with a dislocated shoulder; and savior Andrea Bargnani has yet to log a single minute this season. Those are admittedly the types of obstacles that dont have clear-cut solutions. Rest and rehabilitation are the only possible answers. From there, the Knicks have to hope bodies heal. Continuity is more controllable. Lineups and rotations will need to change as bodies shuffle on and off the injured list, but rookie sideline-stalker Derek Fisher does have the ability to forge some semblance of cohesion. He just hasnt. The Knicks have trotted out 15 different starting lineups through 30 games. Thats a new starting five every other contest. Their two most used combinations have started only four games apiece. Fisher has run even wackier in-game rotations, often tweaking the opening lineup at halftime. The Knicks most used five man combination overall has seen just 57 minutes of action together as well. They are the only team in the league that hasnt yet had a five-man unit clock 60 minutes together. Constant change like this can be damning. To wit: The folks over at Basketball-Reference use Simple Rating System (SRS) to measure a teams standing against its point differential and strength of schedule. An SRS of zero is considered average, so the higher the SRS score, the better the team. Charted below is the relationship shared between the number of starting lineups used and single-season SRS scores for all teams from 2004-05 through 2013-14: Under 16 percent (47) of the leagues last 300 teams managed to post an above-board SRS while fielding more than 15 starting lineups. The Knicks are on pace to run with 41 different starting fives in 2014-15; the last team to use more than 30 starting lineups and finish with a positive SRS was the 2005-06 Indiana Pacers. Health figures to be an issue all season. Thats how it is for most teams. Its on Fisher to will some chemistry into existence by creating an air of lineup familiarity. Small Is Big Theres no point in pretending the Knicks can be a good defensive contingent. They rank 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions, a standing that wont increase with time or health. Improvement on that end requires a talent overhaul they can only explore this summer in free agency. Offensive execution is a different story. The Knicks pick-and-roll attack has been inconsistent and, at times, nonexistent, but they have enough firepower on paper to climb the offensive ladder. Because, Carmelo Anthony. When hes on the floor, the Knicks pump in 107.4 points per 100 possessions; when hes off, theyre putting in just 98.2. Thats the difference between ranking 12th and 29th in offensive efficiency. To be sure, the answer doesnt include Fisher playing Anthony 48 minutes a night. Hes already registering north of 36 amid injury problems. Part of its about upping the pace. The Knicks are running at the fifth-slowest pace in franchise history but are generating far more possessions when Anthony is on the floor. Theres no need for an historically unhurried offense to slow down when hes on the bench. If anything, the absence of a featured scorer who demands a specific number of touches paves the way for more ball movement and quicker decisions. Mostly, though, the Knicks need to embrace a previous identity: small ball. While the triangle calls for a more traditional frontcourt, Anthony and the Knicks are at their best when hes playing power forward. Anthony spent most of his minutes at the 4 in 2012-13 and 2013-14, during which time he notched the two best player efficiency ratings of his career. Only 29 percent of Anthonys minutes have come at power forward this year. Its no surprise that his PER, free-throw rate and three-point rate are down. On the few occasions in which Fisher has gone small, the Knicks have played much better. Their most used small-ball lineup consists of Anthony, Samuel Dalembert, Shane Larkin, Iman Shumpert and Tim Hardaway Jr. When that group—which has logged just 22 minutes together—is on the floor, the Knicks are outscoring opponents by 31.4 points per 100 possessions. Jackson and Fisher may not see small ball as the long-term answer for this team. But it keeps in theme with the modern-day NBA, can be manipulated to work within the triangles core tenets and, most importantly, is one of the few things thats proved semi-successful for this downtrodden team. The Brightest of Sides Look, theres a truckload of things the Knicks actually must do to salvage this season. Less Jason Smith would be a good thing. Fewer mid-range jumpers would be nice too. (The Knicks are attempting more than 30 mid-range jumpers per game; Anthony himself has hoisted more mid-range shots [240] than the entire Houston Rockets team combined [226].) Fans of super concise, incredibly vague descriptions will offer two words of advice: play better. Others, meanwhile, will be convinced that the Knicks have met their doom. That there is no hope. That they should mail it in and chase something besides wins. As Ken Berger of CBS Sports argued: So here is the question you are all waiting for: With Anthony bothered by a sore left knee (and bruised ego), should the Knicks just send him to the Hospital for Special Surgery already to have it fixed -- thus avoiding the ignominy of wasting one of the good seasons he has left, at age 30 in the first year of a five-year, $124 million contract? I say, why not? Whats one more lost season and a few less $12 beers if it ensures that the Knicks finally will be able to exercise the rights that come with a premium first-round pick? Its not like Anthony is taking them anywhere but the lottery anyway. This may be just what the Knicks eventually do. They may sit Anthony; they may start accepting this season as a lottery lost cause. But its too early for that talk when playing in the lowly Eastern Conference—especially when said team hopes to attract superstars in free agency. Playoff berths are stronger selling points than top draft picks. Frankly, the Knicks also arent that far away from being almost there. It sounds stupid, ignorant and lazy, but its not. Nineteen of their contests have seen the outcome determined during crunch time, defined as the final five minutes of a game in which the team is ahead or behind by no more than five points. The Knicks are a disastrous 3-16 in those situations, giving them the NBAs worst crunch-time success rate. Those losses can be attributed to any number of things. They have a bottom-six crunch-time offense, fail to move the ball—second-worst crunch-time assist rate—and allow 119.6 points per 100 possessions, the Associations worst mark. That theyve essentially put themselves in position to win 19 of their first 30 games, though, is huge in itself. If at any point these nail-biting losses turn to wins, the Knicks have hope. Take half of their 16 tightly contested losses, make them wins and their record is 13-17. And that, as of now, would be good enough for a playoff berth in the Eastern Conference. “I think if we can get healthy and we can continue to build confidence in one another [and] in what we can do, we’ll still have a shot at the right time,” Fisher said of the Knicks making a playoff run, per ESPN New Yorks Ian Begley. How we’ve lost a lot of games that we have lost. That, I think, is also in my opinion confirmation that we’re not as far away as it seems. All of this may be true. Losses may actually be wins for the Knicks in the sense that theyre almost-wins and suggest this team isnt on a course to nowhere. Equally—if not more—likely, their sorry start may be an accurate harbinger of who they are and whats to come. Its still too early to know for sure. And that uncertainty is, in its own way, a win for these loss-loaded Knicks. *Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA and are accurate as of games played Dec. 20, 2014. Follow @danfavale Read more NBA news on BleacherReport #Basketball #NBA #NBAAtlantic #NewYorkKnicks #fantasybasketball
Posted on: Tue, 23 Dec 2014 04:08:25 +0000
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