COX PLATE WEEKEND 2013 PREVIEW mugpunting.au/race-previews/mug-punting-horse-racing-tips-previews-speedmaps-form-guides-for-cox-plate-weekend-26th-october-2013.html After picking one of the ONLY double figure winners on Caulfield Cup day in Fawkner last week as well as Red Tracer the Mug Punting is in a really nice vein of form leading into 18 races in 24 hours at a rain sodden Moonee Valley this weekend (we also tipped Boban in our website exclusive Thursday preview). Cleaned up on Cox Plate weekend last year so feeling good about this year, despite the rain. Just a straight up FYI….writing this preview without any odds in front of us so the blinkers are off, we are jacked up on coffee and we are going to find you some winners. Happy Punting…and frigging subscribe to the SMS and win On your way through get some “BONUS” Bets below…..you can’t lose..!! Betfair Free Bets Centrebet FREE Bets IAS FREE Bets Luxbet FREE Bets Moving on to why you are all reading this and that is the tips. Horse racing tips, the spring carnival, free tips, spring carnival tips, racing news and form analysis…it’s all here at Mug Punting..!! GIDDY UP!! COX PLATE RUNNER BY RUNNER PREVIEW Predicted Track: Dead 5 (Dead 5 @ Thursday – Weather Forecast: Isolated Showers, Clearing). Rail: Out 2m. Green Moon Last year’s cup winner and was favourite for this race when disappointed. Ticking over pretty well this preparation to be honest given was never going to win either of first two runs back considering distance/tempo. Lloyd has spaced his runs this preparation and I’m getting this eerie feeling that he’s flipped his preparation this year to go for the Cox Plate with the Melbourne Cup much more of an afterthought if he does in fact run. Has the best ‘non trainer’ in the land, impeccable record at the trip and suspecting that this bloke has completely slipped under everyone’s guard. Rate highly. Happy Trails Australia’s most underrated galloper? Belied the knockers who said he couldn’t run 2000 metres with a strong finishing effort to win the Turnbull, beating subsequent Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner and rival here Puissance De Lune. Really can’t see why he couldn’t do it again and will be favoured by likely muddling tempo given his superior turn of foot. Chance. Fiorente Former import who is flying this campaign with some devastating late runs from the back. Arguably best run in the Turnbull when baulked for runs before flashing down the outside to be beaten half a length. Barrier does possibly kills his chances here and they are probably forced to go right back which will mean he’s giving a start to some very good horses. Possible risk here but do have respect for his ability. Foreteller Another underrated type who has picked up his fair share of Group 1s and 2s in recent times at big odds and was valiant chasing home Atlantic Jewel the other day. Tends to like being saved for a late spurt at them and the style of racing at Moonee Valley may not be suitable. Not without hope but have a few ahead of him just on the basis of class and the unknown of his first start at the velodrome. Side Glance Well travelled international who has raced in UK, Dubai and last start 3rd in Group 1 in USA. Has very strong overall record however, best line appears to be run against Red Cadeaux in Dubai who did beat him home fairly comfortably. Advantage of C Williams here helps as potentially the inside alley may or may not depending on track status at this stage. Hard to assess but yet still happy to risk. Seville Lloyd’s second stringer who plugged home best to win the Metrop but the form from that didn’t stack up last weekend and suspect they’ll probably be a little bit nippy for him here. Has talent but perhaps better off in the Cup. Rekindled Interest Track lover who probably isn’t going as well as he was 2 years ago when 3rd in this race in what was arguably one of the weakest fields of all time. Sting out of track a huge bonus but he’s very hard to catch these days and suspect he’s a shade outclassed against some of these. Puissance De Lune Spring’s boom horse who has lost some of his gloss with 3 consecutive defeats however, runs were sound on all occasions. Ideally suited at the Valley where he gets the cushion surface and with potential lack of tempo can just slot in on the speed and get going early to see if he can pinch a break. He’s not the best WFA horse in the race however, everything has stacked up for him perfectly here in terms of injury setbacks/bad barriers for main opposition. Masked Marvel Yet to win this preparation and has been racing in weaker fields however, is still learning a bit about Australian racing and will only continue to improve. Can’t see him being good enough to win here but one certainly worth following going forward. Mull of Killough Another international with strong overseas credentials but perhaps more at the Group 2/3 level than Group 1 – note Side Glance beat him comfortably at their last start. Has shown an ability to handle wet tracks which is favourable here and has gun jock S Arnold throwing the leg over. Does have a nice stride based on the work I saw of him however, it is hard to fall into him with any great confidence sight unseen at the races. It’s a Dundeel Logical favourite who would have been even shorter had it not been for recent injury setback. Seems to have brushed that off with recent trackwork however, nothing beats race fitness for a race like this so the missed run could prove the difference. One of the best milers/2000 metre horses we’ve seen in recent times with ridiculous turn of foot for such a compact horse and has raced here at the Valley previously. Barrier of marginal concerns as may get posted wide early so tactics will be interesting. Very hard to knock here. Super Cool Would be ironic for Kav if this bloke got up considering Atlantic Jewel’s dramatic exit and he did comprehensively beat It’s a Dundeel this track/distance last year in the Vase. It would be fair to say though that his spring 2012/autumn 2013 form is far superior to what he’s been dishing up this year so just not convinced he’s not carrying an injury or looking to be gelded/head to stud. Perhaps one for multiples. Atlantic Jewel SCRATCHED…RETIRED…FAREWELL CHAMP. Long John Epic winner of Caulfield Guineas who has both a sprint and the ability to be dour at the finish. Don’t think there’s any concern with him running 2000 metres but it takes a very special 3 year old to win the Cox Plate (perhaps with the exception of Savabeel) and just think he’s a shade short of what’s required at this time. Shamus Award Australia’s best maiden but that is hardly a glowing recommendation for a Cox Plate. Blinding run for 3rd in the Caulfield Guineas and was strong here prior when narrowly defeated by Divine Calling. Must be a distance query here and this would be an outrageous coup. Good horse but surely not. Big O’s Oracle 8 – Puissance De Lune 11 – It’s a Dundeel 1 – Green Moon Nightmare race to assess tempo given no natural speed so things could get very messy out of the straight. Race could potentially throw up a surprise result depending on luck in running. Whilst not the best WFA horse in the race, I feel that things of all conspired to Puissance De Lune’s benefit here (weather included). Can position in the first 3 or 4, peel out at the 600 and dare the field to chase him down which could prove difficult. It’s a Dundeel only marginally rates behind only due to injury setback and barrier but is a seriously good horse who could quite easily come out and win this by panels. Sneaky Lloyd you suspect has been hatching a plot with Green Moon to win this race and considering he slipped Fawkner through the cracks last week to some degree it would be no surprise to see him repeat here. Happy Trails simply cannot be left out of multiples and Fiorente perhaps worth taking a risk with. Speed Map Special: Puissance De Lune Roughie: Happy Trails…again! X Factor: Green Moon At the Crossroads: Rekindled Interest SHAGGY’S COX PLATE WEEKEND PREVIEW – RACE BY RACE FRIDAY NIGHT Skipping straight to Race 3 and the form of No.1: Gregers is easily the best and has also won 3 from 3 at Moonee Valley so at set weights she stands out like dogs balls (even though she’s a female) as the most obvious winner of the night. Only danger in my humble (but accurate) opinion is No.6 : Scratchy Bottom who was pretty impressive on debut and is very nicely bred. Race 4 is tricky, but prepared to give No.3: Tweet another chance (also check out our twitter from Caulfield Cup weekend) as she didn’t handle the straight first up. Had good form around Zoustar last campaign on a rain effected track and will probably start around 15-1 which is good value in my book. No.13: Holy Cow should have won last start and has to be included and expecting the No.9: The Messina Nymph to measure up to this class for the McEvoy/Williams combo. Skipping across to Race 6 and No.4: Queenstown has the right formline to belt this lot….however she has drawn the carpark so is going to need some luck. She gets it from Michael Rodd and she wins. No.9: Miss Outshine gets weight off a few of these and is good form so could be the main danger from the nice draw. The feature is the Manikato Stakes (Race 8) is an absolute cracker of a race so hoping the track is holding up OK given the rain in Melbourne this week. Was all over No.10: Samaready like Richie Callendar on a free lunch last start when she belted them and she’ll probably win again here, but she will be too short for me to entertain backing especially if the track is any worse than Slow as she is a question mark of handling it. Might just have a little each way on No.5: Shamexpress who will probably start massive overs for a Newmarket winner that has also won at the track and has drawn a barrier to be ridden with flexibility. SATURDAY – COX PLATE DAY 2013 Will start proceedings at Race 3 and the No.4: Richie’s Vibe was a little unlucky last start (still thought he was entitled to finish off better than he did) and consequently he gets in well weighted here. Should be in the finish, but I’d be wanting $4.50 to $5 to entertain a straight out bet on him otherwise looking at a real roughie in No.11: Arousing Suspicion who should be around 50-1, but ran a couple of nice races through the late Autumn and can run a good race fresh. No.13: Rich Jack looks a handy type and may sneak across and lead easily enough. Race 4 and Chris Waller could train the Melbourne Football Club to a Premiership at the moment…that’s how good he is going so that’s another tick on top of the International formline of his runner No.6: Opinion. Simply looks superior to most of the horses going around in this. If the track really cuts up then No.3: Rothera is the best suited in this and each way will be around 15-1. His mother was probably was a mudder, he eats the slop, loves the slop. Also think that while the No.11: Bel Thor doesn’t win often that he is worth some consideration each way as he is very consistent at this type of distance/class. Race 5 is really a no bets race….but do think that No.3: Tips and Beers can upset the Sydney raiders for Hayes/Schofield. Race 6 is almost worth skipping as the No.8: Not Listenin’tome will be ridiculously short in the market. However I’d rather back No.5: Red Magnet who will be over the odds despite looking very slick in winning in Adelaide last start (also ran an excellent time!). Would also entertain the No.10: Selectify at massive odds in what looms as a possible 3YO raffle. A tricked up Race 7 awaits us (field in the Quaddie?), but going to go with the likely leader in No.6: Mourinho. Beat Mr Moet convincingly here 2 starts back, loves the track and should get a fairly easy lead. It’s the last 200m that may be the query on him, but he is tough as old boots. No.9: Gotta Take Care ran home strongly to almost run over the top of Araldo/Sea Moon last start so that form reads well into this. No.2: Sneak a Peek is coming off a narrow defeat in the Metropolitan so has to be included as a winning chance. Crystal Mile (Race 8) is a really nice race, though it does look like there is not much speed engaged therefore given that No.3: Speediness has finally drawn a barrier here he may just sit around midfield and if he finishes off in this like he has in previous races he will be right there at the finish. No.10: Toydini ran super in the Epsom to only be narrowly beaten by Boban (who then flogged them in Melbourne last week). Will be sitting midfield here and only needs to get around the Moonee Valley circuit well to be a legitimate chance, but would like around $5 on him given the queries. I was on the No.6: Blackie in the Toorak and he will be fitter for that run and does really like Moonee Valley…..given he will be around 10-1 then he is definitely worth something each way. In Race 9 (another Mares raffle) think the run of No.9: Kazanluk was excellent first-up and she gets back to a track where she does her best work and a distance that suits. In an open field and at the weight scale she is going to appeal as an each way bet at around 10-1. No.1: Catkins has drawn a little wide and is carrying the grandstand, but is very smart mare, she has to be included as a winning chance and maybe No.11: Poscellanus is a smokey at double figures who should roll forward (not many natural leaders!) and give them something to chase down. The main event the Cox Plate is the lucky last (Race 10). Maybe it’s a bit naïve to run it as the 18th race in 24 hours and leave it in the lap of the weather gods, but that’s the MVRC prerogative and it’s a good field this year (would have been better with the star Atlantic Jewel) so lap up the best race on Australian soil every year. Really warmed to No.8: Puisance de Lune to win. I do have in the back of my mind a nagging doubt that he hasn’t really beaten any decent horse in any of his wins, but he has been trained to the minute for this race and will be in the right spot turning for home. He’s a big chance. Hoping they take No.11: It’s a Dundeel forward here as there is absolutely no speed engaged so could stack them up and out sprint them (like the Underwood), but may be snagged back to last with too much to do. Have to include No.14: Long John as a legitimate chance after the decisive Guineas win and No.3: Fiorente has to be a big chance (with any luck from the carpark draw). Please anything except for bloody Happy Trails! S
Posted on: Fri, 25 Oct 2013 00:22:09 +0000