Convective Outlook Today Through Tonight: Thunderstorms Convective Outlook Tomorrow Through Tomorrow Night: Thunderstorms 5% Chance of Severe Weather (SPC AC 070537 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT SUN JUL 07 2013 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY WILL REACH THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES MONDAY AND FINALLY MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WITH PRIMARY BELT OF WLYS REMAINING OVER THE NRN TIER STATES. LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BELT OF FASTER WLYS WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY TO ERN MT BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. AT THE SFC A FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING WWD THROUGH NEB INTO NERN WY. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MT. ...CNTRL THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREA... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THE 00Z SUN BISMARK AND ABERDEEN RAOBS SHOW A RESERVOIR OF MID 60S DEWPOINTS OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREA. ELY-SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN POST FRONTAL ZONE AND CONTRIBUTE TO ADVECTION OF THIS RICHER MOISTURE WWD WITH 60-65 F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED AS FAR WEST AS ERN MT. DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE STRONGER INSTABILITY IS LIKELY OVER ERN MT WHERE THE STEEPER MIDDLE-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERLAP THE WRN EDGE OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM WRN AND SRN MT...NRN WY AND WRN SD AND SUBSEQUENTLY EXPAND EWD. OTHER STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS MT AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL RESIDE WITHIN BELT OF MODERATE WLY WINDS ALOFT WITH 35-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ERN MT INTO ND AS WELL AS ALONG NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ FROM NEB INTO IA. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL THROUGH ERN MT. ...MID ATLANTIC AND A PORTION OF THE NERN STATES... STRONGER SWLY MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IT STILL APPEARS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST OF THE UPPER LOW MAY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL. WHERE DIABATIC WARMING DOES OCCUR...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE. STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ..DIAL.. 07/07/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1652Z (12:52PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME) Convective Outlook Tuesday Through Tuesday Night: Thunderstorms
Posted on: Sun, 07 Jul 2013 16:52:56 +0000
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