Convective Outlook Tomorrow Through Tomorrow Night: Thunderstorms Convective Outlook Wednesday Through Wednesday Night: Thunderstorms (SPC AC 150635 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0135 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2013 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SWRN STATES AND GREAT BASIN EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL WLYS WILL BE CONFINED N OF THIS FEATURE FROM THE PAC NW ACROSS SRN CANADA...WHILE SEVERAL WEAK ELY WAVES DRIFT ACROSS THE NERN GULF REGION AND NRN MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE MID-SOUTH...AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED IN BETWEEN OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS INTO QUEBEC. ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN ESTABLISHING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER MUCH OF MT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER WRN MT INTO NWRN WY. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL SWLY FLOW RANGING FROM 20-40 KT COMBINED WITH THE BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THUS...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...NEW ENGLAND... MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WLYS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /PW VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S/ OVER NEW ENGLAND DURING WEDNESDAY. A CONFLUENT SURFACE FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING SRN QUEBEC COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL AID IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP-LAYER WLY WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS...WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ...SRN APPALACHIANS... THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE CAPE AND A HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ..GARNER.. 07/15/2013 CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1639Z (12:39PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME) Convective Outlook Saturday Through Saturday Night: Severe Weather
Posted on: Mon, 15 Jul 2013 16:41:18 +0000
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